Ecotone A Typical Region Of Agriculture And Animal Husbandry Land Use Change In Multi-agent Simulation Analysis

Based on the method of multi-agent simulation, This dissertation has set up a land-use modeling analyzing the impact of transition between cultivation and pasture animal husbandry on the mechanism of land use in Pasture and Agriculture Transitional Zone, of which behavior mechanism of local people was emphasized. Meanwhile, combining with the theories of systematology, ecology, economics, sociology, environmental sciences, the driving forces have been discussed, exploring the land-use mechanism in the viewpoint of choice between cultivation and pasture animal husbandry. Followings are the main research works having been done. (1)The summary and demonstration have been used to improve the applicability of multi-agent simulation in the analysis of land-use mechanism; (2)Combining the method of multi-agent simulation, ecology and psychology, a land-use modeling has been set up; (3)Driving forces have been analyzed by sensitive analysis, and were sorted by the size of relative sensitivity;(4)Evaluate the managing policy by the modeling, using as a method of decision-making support.The multi-agent model has been completely considered the interaction between macro-forces and micro-forces. The results show that: unreasoning production and a fast increase of population are the most important factors affecting plantation, pasture and land environment; the achievement of compensation policy should be solidified using some following measures, the occasion the policy applied and the lasting time also took great impacts on the achievement.Based on the analysis, the advices were given out. There are some aspects should been attached importance: the management of unreasoning production, the management of human beings, the control of related market price, the occasion of policy intervention, and so on.