Bullwhip Effect Of Supply Chain Research

Bullwhip effect is one of the most important and difficult topics in supply chain management research. This thesis is about bullwhip effect. Through system dynamics soft powersim, a supply chain model based on APIOBPCS order pattern and VMI is formed. It is researched that classical forecast method and CPFR forecast method impact bullwhip effect.In summarize part, this thesis reviews the research about bullwhip effect. Then this thesis points out the insufficiency of foregone bullwhip research. The frame of this thesis is gived at Last.The second chapter is the reviews of the knowledge about supply chain management.In the first part of third chapter, it is analyzed that the different between classics and VMI inventory control method. Then,this thesis forms a supply chain model based on APIOBPCS&VMI. Using this model, this thesis researchs the impact of smooth quotiety, inventory check cycle, lead time, inventory adjust quotiety, constraint and the least backlog quantity on bullwhip effect.In the forth chapter, this thesis researches the model that is based on CPFR, APIOBPCS and VMI. Compare to the model in the third chapter, research finds that CPFR can decrease the degree of bullwhip effect and the total inventory quantity.In the fifth chapter, the conclusion of this thesis is gived, then points out the insufficiency of this paper and the next research direction.This thesis's frame is different to before bullwhip research. It can be seen from these points.The most of before bullwhip research is based on three nodes supply chain model. This thesis construct seven nodes supply chain model. Through this model, more details can be seen. The limit of productive capacity is one of the cause of bullwhip, this is talked about in the before thesis. This thesis researches all members know the constraint in its supply chain. The result shows the appropriate constraint can decrease bullwhip effect, at the same time the supply chain performs as good as before.In this thesis, the lead time is changed step by step. The result showed if the supply chain is based on APIOBPCS, the inventory adjust quotiety is equal 1 and all downriver node's lead time is constant, then the node's demand standard deviation only can be caused by the close node's lead time.The appropriates minimum order quantity can decrease bullwhip effect, but bullwhip effect is sensitive to it.