The Hangjiahu Inland Freight Development Analysis And Forecasts,

As a richly historied mode of transportation, inland waterway transportation still plays an important role in today's comprehensive modern transport system and the development of national economy. During the construction of the modern transport system, the sound development of river shipping has become a backbone force in the sustainable development of economy in Hangzhou, Jiaxin and Huzhou provinces. In recent years, the river shipping in Hangzhou, Jiaxin and Huzhou provinces have developed rapidly by efficient management and become the representative of domestic river shipping. After analyzing the situation and influences of river shipping in Hangzhou, Jiaxin and Huzhou provinces, with qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, this paper forecasts the following contents, including the total volume of cargo of river transportation, the distribution of cargo transportation and the main bulk cargo volume. The final result is the theory basis of Hangzhou, Jiaxin and Huzhou provinces River Shipping strategy research.There are eight sections in this paper. In the first section, the author introduces simply the research backgrounds and the methods used. Then the development circumstances of river shipping is analyzed, including the situation, problems, functions and the position in transport network and the development of local economy. In the third section, the author analyses the factors which haves effects on river shipping of Hangzhou, Jiaxin and Huzhou provinces, such as the macro-change in our country, the industry structure, the economic development trend of hinterland and the development of comprehensive transportation system. The forth step, the main characteristics, the content and the method of the prediction of the cargo transportation by river are introduced. The forecast of waterborne cargo volume in Hangzhou, Jiaxin and Huzhou provinces is done in the fifth section, many mathematic models, such as linear regression analysis, have been used here and qualitative analyses such as Delphi techniques is also used. Then the author forecasts the main bulk cargo transportation volume and the cargo transportation volume change of the main waterway in Hangzhou, Jiaxin and Huzhou provinces. In the sixth section, the paper analyses and predicts the cargo throughput of OD point and cargo distribution of the OD flow. The forecast which has been used for cargo transportation distribution is Fratar method. Based on the analysis above, the paper forecasts the main bulk cargo transportation volume, such as coal, mineral building material, cement and nonmetal ores. At the end of the paper, the author draws a conclusion of the development of inland waterway transportation in Hangzhou, Jiaxin and Huzhou provinces.In the next ten years, the increase of waterborne cargo volume in Hangzhou, Jiaxin and Huzhou provinces depends on the demand of economics development and the government shipping policy. The inland waterway transportation in Hangzhou, Jiaxin and Huzhou provinces will grow smoothly, and grow rate will diminish slightly. The main kinds of cargo of river shipping are still the coal, mineral building material and other large sums of cargo. The inner waterway container transportation will expand rapidly and soundly.