Study Of The Forecast Method Of Container Transportation Volume Of XiangJiang River

In the last few years, Xingjiang water container transportation is greatly developing depending on superior geography environment of XiangJiang River and huge economic advantages of container transportation, which has became the bright point of the XiangJiang Transportation and will be the inevitable trend of XiangJiang Navigation. But currently, the water container transportation of XiangJiang is at the primary stage. The system is not perfect and planned. Before solving these problems, the water container transportation volume must be forecasted. The paper is advanced under this situation.The forecast of inland water container transportation volume belongs to the field of economy forecast which mainly study the development trend of the objective economic process in future some period. According to the evolution and developing regulation of the objective economic process, economy forecast carry on the description, analysis, estimate and prediction of the trend and conditions of the economic development in the certain period of future by means of the methodology and the technique methods of science, which aims at getting the influence of the economic activities of future by studying the history regulation and present condition of objective economy phenomenon. The quantity of the economic forecast relies on the degree of understanding the objective economy phenomenon and the science of adopting forecasting methods.Firstly, this paper systematically elaborated the present condition of the XiangJiang water container transportation from channel, port, ship, and economy. Then it analyzed the development trend of XiangJiang water container transportation.Secondly, this paper selected five representative forecast methods, and introduced their characteristics, calculate and the model structure in detail. And these five forecast methods are applied in XiangJiang River container transportation development project by programming.Thirdly, this paper built up combination model based on the idea of equidimension and compensation. This model originates from the idea ofequidimension and compensation of gray theory and is made up of advanced gray model and BP neural network. The obvious characteristics of this model are that it adopts" roll over" collecting information mode to update information constantly. Another one is that it automatically adjusts itself during the predicting to lower the forecast error. This model is applied in the project to show its usefulness.Fourthly, four technological function indexes: forecast period, forecast error, operation strength and applied scale are used to compare and analyze the six models in order to make clear the advantage and disadvantage of every model. At the same time, the analysis shows that the model the paper built up is of ascendant among these models.Several kinds of forecast model are compared and studied in this paper in order to cover all forecast models as possible as I can. The conclusion of this Combination Model Based on the idea of Equidimension and Compensation is reliable, and the research product will be useful to interrelated researchers and inland container transportation management.