| With the decline in the birth rate and the extension of average life expectancy, as early as 2000 China has already entered the aging society, and in the next few years, the proportion of elderly population will increase further. As "Silver Wave" impact, China will face an unprecedented population structure, which will fully affect our social life. How to resolve a series of problems the rapid ageing of the population brought about is the very pressing issue our country is facing. From the international experience, old-age service models usually have three choices: the family support for the elderly, institutional support for the elderly and community support for the elderly. In the past most of Chinese take family support for the elderly and institutional support for the elderly model, but with the social and economic development, the functions of family support for the elderly are gradually weakening; and agencies support for elderly costs high, and many elderly people on this form of endowment are not suited in psychological, compared these two Models , old-age community has low-cost services to meet the psychological needs of the elderly and other advantages, so the community support for the elderly will become the major choice of country's social old-age support.Invest to establish older apartment is one of the main ways of community support for elderly age, and it would refer to real estate investment risks. Investment in real estate is a series of complex integrated process ,and investment in real estate have its peculiarity:The long payback period, the compound risks, the huge investment, etc. And compared with other business the real estate investment would have more complicated risky factors which can cause serious consequence, these risks of real estate investment plays a decisive role in the success or failure. In order to make the investment decision more scientific and win better investment benefit, investment risk analysis and management seem to be very essential. The first step in risk analysis is risk identify, the main role of risk is reduce the uncertain point of risk factor reasonable, find out major factor , and give the most suitable risk strategy for investor . This thesis through the use of the Delphi Method in experts investigation to summary the major factors which would affect real estate investment ,according to resources ,the factors are divided into six aspects such as policy risk, social risk, economic risk, technical risk, and natural risk.Among the third part of the thesis, finds out the basic condition of the demographic, economic, real estate in Zibo by consulting plenty of data and field survey; And on the basis of careful analysis information of recent years, this thesis made forecast of the next few years' development trend of Zibo City. Reached the following conclusions: Zibo City has entered the aging society, the proportion of young labor force decreased gradually, and this trend will not change in the next few years, or even more serious. The increase in the elderly population requires more organization and other facilities, Simply rely on family support for the elderly model can no longer meet the increasing living needs of older persons, The Government has not adequately funded and strength to meet all the needs of elderly persons, Therefore must be developing the social support for the elderly model can we effectively address the problem of an ageing society. Because of high profit in real estate investment recent years and accelerated demands of commercial house, the price of real estate increases very quickly and attracts plenty of capital to invest in the construction of real estate. A lot of real estate projects were under construction. All above factors cause plenty of vacant commercial house today. A large number of vacant commercial houses occupy a huge amount of bad asset , increased the difficulty of guarding against financial risks , endangering the normal operation of the financial system as well as normal operation of the national economy , therefore, the Government should introduced corresponding policies to guide the real estate market development healthy .At last, the article introduces several kinds of familiar risk strategy methods, meanwhile, researches and consults some comparatively mature theories in real estate investment risk strategy at home and abroad, combines the current actual condition in Zibo, uses professional opinion integration method, Delphi methods, AHP etc., from different angles to research the investment risk strategy matter in Zibo elderly person apartment items. |
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