Jiangsu Province, Housing Security Level Of Influencing Factors And Prediction

In recent years, along with our country economy's rapid rising, the domestic real estate price comes to extreme heights. As the house price skyrockets, the real estate industry booms one night of sudden, while the most mid and low earning residents can't afford an apartment. The housing-welfare had already become broadly the community attention focal point. After NO.17 conference, appears continuously a series in view of the real estate market policy, active control the house price crazy rise. Meanwhile, in view of the mid and low earning resident's accommodation, the Central authorities charges various Local authority to enlarge safeguards the housing construction area, the expanded safeguard scope, the enhancement safeguard standard, and will formulate the one year, three year, ten year housing safeguard plan, avoiding the housing welfare work in a blind way.Enlightened by these, the paper chooses a brand-new angle of view to study the housing welfare question. In combs the predecessor research results in the foundation, this article divided all kinds of factors in three broad headings as the economic development factor, the resident factor, the housing market factor, and are chosen 12 major targets taken as the reference, in the paper. In order to simplify the computation difficulty, this article take all previous years statistical annual's in data information as the basis, synthesized three main factors 12 targets, makes the sensitivity analysis separately again to three main factors, after the computation indicated that the national economy level of development is affects the housing-welfare the most primary factor, therefore has taken it as the only factor in the following forecasting process. The article rise two suppositions which based on the future society middle class will strengthen with the residential building power of consumption, this article thinks the housing-welfare level not should along with the economic growth, but has grown, after achieving the certain extent, must recede gradually, so it has formed the reversed U development path. Taken Jiangsu Province's actual situation as the basis, this paper has further portrayed the reversed U curve characteristic, divided it in three development phases, and according to the different period's characteristic, the concrete projects on housing-welfare work have been designed.This study shows that: the housing security of Jiangsu Province at the present stage of work by 2015 is still in incremental stages of development, the Government should increase funding for housing investment, At this moment per capita income is still relatively low 4800 yuan-6000 yuan, the need for housing support in the proportion of the population of about 20% -30%, the Government's housing security tasks more: for middle-income families to buy living room the economy, the Government provides micro-insurance ; in economic difficulties for low-income families to purchase housing, the Government provided some protection; low-cost rental housing for low-income families, the Government has provided full security. 2015-2025, the housing support will be peaked at this time the Government has put in the largest per capita residential area began to improve, protect the rapidly declining proportion of the population 20%--8%, Slightly reduce the protection of the task: in low-income families purchase insurance by the Government to protect the part. From 2025 to 2035, with the rise of the middle class, residents continue to improve housing affordability, the Government began to decline in housing security, the need to protect a population of about 8%, the government afford the low-rent housing system for low-income families.Corresponding to the different security programs, housing for the security policy should also be changed. Adjusting the mode of supply of housing, in small type at this stage should increase the supply of affordable housing, with the ability of residents to improve housing residential area gradually expanded. Dynamic adjustment of the level of housing, in phases, by gradually increasing the protection of people, and living space. Establish a new concept of housing: housing gradient gradually increase the level of consumption, housing security is to protect the basic living requirements of residents, to buy a house and renting is a reasonable form of housing consumption.