Under The Financial Crisis, The Consumer Model And Trend Forecasting

Financial Crisis having become more and more serious, Chinese Economy, whose growth lies on export closely, has got severe impact. In response to the raid of the financial crisis and ensure the growth of 'national economic growth, the government put forward policies to expand domestic demand in time. Household Consumption is the main content of consumption demand, so research on the consumer problem under the background of the financial crisis is of great significance.Base on the consumption theory of modern economics, this paper makes use of Statistical Analysis and econometric methods and models to mainly study contents below:First, the paper makes a co-integration analysis of long-run equilibrium relationship between household consumption and economic growth in our country, and firstly propose semi-parametric partly linear model with variable coefficients about Chinese household consumption, and has made an analysis of it. The model well reveals the relationship between household consumption, per capita GDP, savings and pre-consuming behavior, and provide a theoretical basis for forecasting the trend of household consumption.Second, in the basis of previous work, this paper has established the extended linear expenditure model and the Panel Data Model, and made an estimation of parameters by LSE and analyzed these models; furthermore, it has made a prediction of the change of the structure of national household consumption.Finally, based on the conclusion of the study, this paper proposed several suggestions to promote economic growth in the hope that these suggestion will provide some help for our country to tide over the financial crisis smoothly.