Natural Gas Consumption Is Forecast Based On Projection Pursuit

With west-east gas pipeline and chuan-east gas pipeline project coming into commercial operation, natural gas consumption market in china will step into a new development stage. no matter formulating natural gas development strategy signing "Take or Pay" Contract or upstream and downstream natural gas engineering project design ect. These all need to determine mid long term consumption level of natural gas market. accurate prediction for determine mid long term consumption level has important significance to developing natural gas industry in china.This paper analysis influencing factors of consumption level of natural gas market and introduces prediction method for consumption level of natural gas and its advantages and disadvantages. On this basis, this paper presents a new predicting method- Projection Pursuit for consumption level of natural gas, applies projecting pursuit classification model to analysis influencing factors of consumption level of natural gas market. the advantages of Projection Pursuit can exclude independent data structure and feature or variable interference with little relations, make high-dimensional data project one-dimensional space, then, analysis one-dimensional date after projecting, and then comparison of one-dimensional ruselt, find out the best projection. Therefore, Projection Pursuit is excellent method which analysis high-dimensional data.This paper establish model of mid long term consumption level of natural gas market on the basis of analysising it, Application of Projection Pursuit, bp neural network, grey theory, and combination forecasting to forecast consumption level of natural gas of one city in SiChuan, and optimization results by using of markov probability model. The example shows that the Prediction Model which base on Projection Pursuit of consumption level of natural gas has faster speed and higher prediction accuracy, Moreover, combination forecasting has best effect.