Beijing Urban Pension Income And Expenditure Estimates And Sensitivity Analysis

ENDOWMENT insurance is at the core position of the social security system, which not only plays the most important role for keeping the basic livelihood of the retired person, but also can promote social stability and economic development. But the endowment insurance confronts some difficulties in recent years, as there are some many history accumulated pension debts and the amount of retired persons is growing at a high speed.This thesis mainly uses the time series and life insurance calculation methods to estimate the revenue and expenditure of Beijing urban pension between 2008 and 2020. In order to find the influence of different factors, this thesis also makes some sensitivity analysis of pension revenue and expenditure. All these estimates and analysis may be helpful for making more reasonable decisions, so that the endowment insurance can avoid payment crisis and play a more effective role for keeping the basic livelihood of the retired persons in the following years.According to the estimates, both the payment and retired population have a great increase between 2008 and 2020. At the same time, the pension revenue and expenditure is growing at a high speed, but the revenue speed is quicker. Before 2020, the pension revenue is larger than the expenditure. As the expenditure speed is higher than the revenue speed, the pension revenue may be smaller than the expenditure at 2030. At that time, the government may have to use the accumulated pension to sustain the payment. If this condition goes on, the payment crisis may happen in the long run.According to the sensitivity analysis, adjusting the factors which influence the pension revenue and expenditure, such as retired age, the population transfer rate, pension payment rate, pension substitution rate, annual pension adjustment rate, may be helpful for improving the situation of pension balance. But in order to avoid the pension payment crisis for ever, the best choice is to take some measures to completely solve the accumulated history pension debt of old and middle retired persons.