Drilling Project Investment Risk Analysis Based On Fuzzy Theory

Oil drilling project is a special project which take the ground as the work object and has the high investment, high risks and high levels character.Because of the different geological features such as natural environment, geological structure and so on, there are lots of uncertainties in the process of drilling.These uncertainties often lead to that actual costs exceed the budget,even cause failure of the investment. Therefore, it is necessary to make an effective risk analysis for the investment of the drilling projects.Based on the Fuzzy Theory,the risk analysis of the drilling engineering project investment is that analyze and predict the affect degree that the uncertainty factors put on the economic effect indexes by using Fuzzy Theory. From the perspective of technical and economic,we took the net present value as the evaluation index of the risk factor variables and made an economic evaluation for the drilling project on the basis of reading a large amount literatures and the existing achievements.And then, established the primary fuzzy evaluation model of the investment risk by taking the sensitivity of the sensitive factors as the weights and established the secondary Fuzzy Evaluation Model by taking the reliability of the expert as the weights.Finally, took an international drilling project of Kazakhstan for example to proved that the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is feasible.The application of the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method in drilling engineering project investment make that we can quantify the evaluation of the investment risk of the drilling project and made it Easy to understand.It has an important practical significance to reduce the investment risk of drilling engineering projects and expand the economic benefits.