Method Of Poft Investment Risk Anaiysis Based On Fuzzy Theory

Ports play an important role in the development and construction of national economy. Strengthen port construction is key to improve the overall national strength. At the same time, port construction project is are special projects with huge investment, high risk and high-technology. Due to various kinds of risk during port construction. Therefore, port investors such as banks consider the risk analysis of port investment as the most important. Uncertainties in the process of port construction was caused by the differences lying in geological structures and soil properties of foundations. These uncertainties will often overrun the budgets, even lead to the failure in investment. Thus, it is necessary to make effective risk analysis of investment in port construction projects.Firstly, a systematic and in-depth research was make on the status of construction risk management in domestic and foreign ports. Secondly, on the basis of Technological Economics, Internal Rate of Return was taken as a risk factor variable index in order to make economic evaluations and uncertainty analysis toward port construction projects. Thirdly, a the first-level fuzzy model to evaluate project investment risk was made weighted by the sensitivity coefficient of the sensitive factors as the risk variable factors. The accurate degree of subjective assessments by experts was considered as the weight of each evaluator to construct a second-level fuzzy model in port construction project investment risk evaluation. Finally, a case study of Dalian Port, the Maritime Red Port Area was made to confirm the practicality and feasibility of the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model.The improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method can quantitatively evaluate the risk port construction projects, which is easily to analyze and evaluate. This method is significant in practice use to make reduction on investment risks in port construction projects and improve economic benefits.