A Study On The Process, Current Situation And Trend Of Floating Population In Beijing

Based on the foreign classical theory and domestic existing research results, this paper conducts a systematic description on the change process and status quo of the floating population of Beijing, a empirical testing on the influence factors of the floating population’s flow reasons and settled intention, and a trend prediction on the amount of the floating population of Beijing in the future. The innovation of this research lies in the combination of macro and micro, and the future forecast through the trend of changes of the floating population itself.The paper mainly has the following conclusions :(1) Since the founding of new China, big changes have taken place in the scale of the floating population in Beijing, especially a trend of rapid growth and a significantly higher growth rate than that of census register population in mid and late 1980s; the floating population is mainly concentrated in urban function development zone, but in general, most of the counties of the floating population increased year by year; more and more family flow together and tend to settle down;(2) A floating person of woman, younger age, other ethnic groups, a higher education level, marriage, flow for a long time, career in commercial service, a higher income in last month, employer provides free housing, not establish health files in place of residence is more willing to flow to Beijing; A floating person of age between 35 and 44, a higher education level, a longer retention time, a higher income in last month, a better social integration degree is more willing to settle down in Beijing;(3) Adopt time series AR autoregressive model to predict the future floating population of Beijing, the results showed that in 2020, the floating population of Beijing is about 8.89 million, the amount is decreasing year by year; it also can be seen in recent years, Beijing’s population control and regulation policies have played a appropriate role.