Stock Price Prediction Model

One of character and aim of modem stock theory is to study the model of quantitative analysis in the profit and risk of stock investment Therefore, o拁tr purpose is to build the model of stock price forecasting on the basis of mistake-elimination theory and using qualitative and quantitative analysis. Buying stock bring people lots of profit, it bring people risk at the same time. There has special relationship between the profit and risk. Accordingly, our study focuses on the risk of stock investment and builds the model of stock price forecasting by evaluating the risk. To carry out this plan, we should take the following steps: First, we should establish the object system, which five subsystems is conditional subsystem, conclusion subsystem, inherence function subsystem, purpose function subsystem and relationship system. In addition, we should collect and coordinate the data of all stock. Second, we should establish the rule system of distinguish risk. The rule system is not the same to different stock. We should establish whole rule system of five object subsystems for different stock. Then, we should establish correlation system of all factor of object system to stock price. The correlation varies according to time and different stock. By the three systems above, we could build the model of stock price evaluating. How to build the model is the subject of chapter 3 of this thesis; the introduction mainly is the development of stock theory and presentation of our study; chapter 1 analyze the character of stock investment risk; chapter 2 introduce the theory of mistake-elimination; chapter 4 is an example to demonstrate the model.