Medium-and Long-term Macroeconomic Forecasting Models, Methods, And Applied Research

The models and methods of macroeconomic prediction are studyed in this paper. The research work is as follows:a)On the base of the objects of economic development and the conditions of economic system,a mult-object dynamic input-output optimization model is built. The model conforms to the situation and the deciplines of economec development, and is easy to adjust,and so,it is practical.b)After studying the solving methods of the multiobject progromming,an eff-ective algorithm is given through repeated practice for the model built in this pap-er. The method is multi-phases simple algorithm for the multi-object program.The above model and its solving method are usedin the predict of economic index system in the tenth five-year plan in Dalian.And the results are good.c)An improved algorithm of RAS method which is used to adjust the technic-al coeffients matrice is given in this paper. And some natures of investment coeffi-cients matrice are gained through the study of relations between the economc gro-wth rate and the matrice.d)Econometric model and its application are introduced.