Bond Risk Analysis

The "Asian financial crisis" occurred in 1997 led to worldwide financial panic. Domestic and foreign academic community pays more and more attention to the problem of economic risk and the theory on it. In the conditions of modern market-oriented economy, the level of marketilization is so high and various of contradictions caused by the market mechanism is getting more and more keen-edged and prominent. The national finance, its safety and its basic effect on the whole national safety especially have been the important questions for study or discussion in the field of modern financial theory. How to evade fiscal risk has been a difficult problem puzzling all countries in the world. For China finance which is in the process of structural changes or economic transitions, the risk mainly comes from national debt.The practice of economic development in all countries has proved that the national debt, as a special form of revenue, is not only one important content of the fiscal policies but also the medium linking the fiscal and monetary policies. It has brought into play in the process of raising fund and promoting the economic development. Since 1981 our country resumed to issue national debt, it has been 20 years of history. National debt really plays an important role which can not be disregarded in the social and economic life. But when it came into 1990's, especially since the active fiscal policies were performed in 1998, our country's national debt issue amount (The national debt in this thesis only refers to domestic debt and doesn't include foreign debt) is increasing sharply and the debt dependence degree is heightening by a wide margin. The situation has caused much anxiety and attention from many people: How large is the risk of national debt in our country on earth? Whether can we continue to issue national debt? Faced with the problem of the risk of national debt, what can we do to guard against it and relieve it? This thesis will analyze these series of problems and attempt to give reasonable resolutions.The first part, theoretic analysis: How to understand the risk of national debt?Beginning with risk and financial risk, this part interprets and explains the meaning of the risk of national debt and analyzes it in the aspects of determining the nature, the standard system which determine the moderate size of national debt and interest factor. The second part, the present risk of national debt in our country and the analysis on the factors which cause it. Through the analysis on the indexes of the rate of national debt burden , debt dependence degree and the rate of debt paying and so on, this part respectively expatiate our country's present risk of national debt from four segments which are issue, circulation,use and repayment. It also analyzes the reasons which cause the risk of national debt in the aspects of system and management.The third part, the international experience and its implication on the management of the risk of national debt in our country. The national debt originated from Western countries initially, and in the long years of issuing national debt, many countries have accumulated a great deal of experience which are worthy of using for reference by us. This part introduces some Western countries' successful experience on the choice of term structure, variety structure and holder structure of national debt and the control on the national debt issue amount. I hope that these experiences can bring enlightenment for us on the management of the risk of national debt in our country.The forth part, the analysis on the countermeasures which can help us guard against the risk of national debt and relieve it. According to the present situation of the risk of national debt in our country, this part puts forward a few specific countermeasures to guard against it and relieve it.