Traditional Technical Analysis Is Not Valid Empirical And Method Improvement

How to understand reasonably and use the method of the Technical Analysis, speaking from the root, is the problem that we must answer as Investors. Our cognition and the actual operation guided by it, on the one hand, would directly cause our individual the Investing result. On the other hand, our resultant force also affect the stock market's development of our country, therefore, we should study the technical analysis deeply.At the process that I write the article, for the sake of the technique analysis's system, I adopt other people's some standpoints in the data of treatises about the technique analysis, and on the base I according to the own cognition, adopt the own method to deepen it. Besides I bring forward the own standpoints.Considering the fact that many people think the technical analysis is useless, this article begins with the definition of the technical analysis and analyses the main achievements in China and abroad by comparison. It analyses the actualities and existent problems deeply. Considering the shortcomings, I find out that the graph analysis is inclined to the inefficiency and the traditional index analysis has limitation in function by statistic analyzing. In the early period(1990/12/19~ 1992/05/21), the common stock market did guide the investment. Moreover, short-term analysis was more effective than long-term one. After 1992/02/21, the possibility of obtaining extraordinarily profit weakened gradually. In terms of the shortcoming of traditional technology, the article puts forward a series of newly investment analysis methods based on statistic analysis,- for example, correlation analysis, cluster analysis, component analysis, factor model analysis. Finally, compare the new analysis method with the old one and come to the conclusion that the new one is obviously superior to the old one. Besides I will do some research in the following technical analysis by using modern technology and methods.