China's Foreign Debt Risk Data Analysis

External debt, as an important form of utilizing foreign capitals, has been promoting the lasting growth of economy effectively since China began to reform and open up. But the external debt has its dualities, because any kind of debt needs to be repaid not only the corpus but also the interest, so the potential crisis of debt repayment comes into being. A lot of crises are caused by debt problems directly or indirectly, such as the debt crises of the Latin American countries in the 1980s, the Asian financial crisis in 1997. It is very important to reduce the risk of debt by confirming the reasonable scale of external debt to match with the national economic development and the ability of debt repayment.Since the last part of 2002, the scale and flow of China's external debt has begun to rise rapidly, and the proportion of the short-term external debt has already exceeded 20 percent than the international average. Whether the rise will cause debt crisis, and influence the security of China's economic development? The capital account is further opened after China's entrance to WTO, what about the scale of China's external debt in the future?In the paper, the risk caused by the scale of external debt is analyzed from the two angles, the index of external debt risk and the reasons of external debt rise on the basis of analyzing the characteristic of China's external debt utilization, and the factors influencing the scale of China's external debt are tested. Afterward, a prediction model is set up to predict the developing state of China's external, and the hidden danger existing in the management of the external debt is presented.Through the analysis of the external debt risk index and the reasons of extemal debt rise, it can be found that China's GDP, exchange revenue and foreign exchange reserve level can ensure the repayment of short-term external debt, the increase of external debt balance and the high proportion of short-term external debt will not influence the security of external debt, the debt crisis will not present. At the same time, it is found that the economic variable influencing the increase of external debt connects with the scale of external debt tightly through the analysis of relativity. In the end of the paper, it is concluded that the scale of China's extemal debt will rise constantly, but the speed will slow down.