Commercial Housing Price Formation Mechanism And Empirical Analysis

As for which has been regarded as a kind of commodities the price is key matter. Because housing has special characters the forming of housing's price is more complicated than other commodities' s. This paper is to find the driving forces for commercial housing' s price and to provide feasible model of forecast depending on the forming mechanism of commercial housing' s price. The research method of this paper is to combine overseas ripe theory with our national conditions and to combine theory with objective realty. The result is the relationship between demand and supply determines the price of commercial housing. The decisive factor is demand. Since our commercial housing market is not mature, neither the cost of construction and installation nor the cost of land can be considered as the driving force influencing the housing price. The factors what affect the price of commercial housing are various. The most important factor is effective demand which is determined by GDP, disposable income and deposit of townspeople, urban population, tax rate, interest rate, price expectation. The factors have different effects in different district, in different time. The effect of the same factor is not always fixed. Some factors are difficult to measure, but they affect the price very much. The grey prediction model GM(1,1) can predict the commercial housing' price. The result can provide theoretical basis and analysis tool for commercial housing' s price. It can be used by government, enterprise, bank and individual.