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Studies On The Risk Management Of Agriculture Product Price In China

Posted on:2006-06-10Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:L FengFull Text:PDF
GTID:2166360155952844Subject:Agricultural Economics and Management
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The 20th century was an epoch when society, economy, science and technology developed rapidly, especially science and technology advanced rapidly from the period when World War Two ended in the afternoon of 1940s, and science and technology drove the world economy developing apace. For the population swelling and demanding of substances inflating, a great deal of science and technologies were employed to enlarge industrial and agricultural productions. Agriculture is a basic industry of national economy and a main source of the economy, and farm produces are necessities of human life. So agriculture plays an important role in the economy. Price of agricultural produces is a crucial factor in deciding agricultural development and the stabilization of the collectivity price because it is a basic price that its change will fluctuate the collectivity price. It is reported that the retail price will raise one percent if the contract price of the foodstuff rises six cents every kilogram in China. Along with economic innovation and opening national door, the Engel coefficient of Chinese families is falling gradually, and their outlay of foodstuff is lessening day by day, hence the influence of agricultural produces price is weakening. But the price of agricultural produce is still important to the economy. It can benefit the economic development and social stabilization that solves problems of agricultural produce price and stabilizes it. This paper analyzed problems about agriculture, farmers and rural areas of China, and the price of agricultural produce is its analytical emphasis. Its contents can be summed up as follows: 1. actualities of agricultural produces price in China and international markets (1)actuality of the price in China agricultural produces market The price of agriculture produces has risen largely since China began to push its economic innovation and opened national door, but it climbed irregularly and unequally, and it rose more and more quickly. For China joining the WTO, its agricultural produces market has been opened to overseas produces and contact with overseas markets more close. So it has strengthened that the influence of fluctuation comes from overseas agricultural produces markets, and farmers must face larger risk of agricultural produces price fluctuating. The price fluctuation has some recurrent law in Chinese agricultural produces market. The fluctuation may be carved up into four periods: the first cycle persisted from 1979 to 1985, when the price ascended smoothly; the second did from 1986 to 1992, there was the first parabola cycle; the third did from 1993 to 1997, there was the second parabola cycle; the four did from 1998 to 2002, which was a low cycle that its primary character was the price falling down continuously. (2)actuality of the price in international agricultural produces market As a kind of commodity, agricultural produces bear double risks that come from natural disasters and prices waving in markets. The ability is poor that the price of agricultural produces is protected by itself, so it is hard to eliminate the fluctuation of its price. We could draw this conclusion by analyzing the price of agricultural produces in international markets these years. But there some differentia that international markets are more mature and more perfect than internal market, and the cause that international markets are influenced by natural disasters is different from Chinese markets. Therefore the fluctuation of agricultural produces price in overseas markets is not synchronized with it in internal markets, but the fluctuation coming from overseas markets still has obvious influence on Chinese market of agricultural produces. (3)influences of China joining WTO on the price of agricultural produces On the one hand, for the cost of human labor is low in China, and this low cost will persist for a long time, which is important to these agricultural produces produced by a lot of labors, such as vegetable, fruits, flowers and some livestock products. These produces have the advantage of low prices in international markets. On the other hand, the price of Chinese foodstuff is higher than overseas because they are produced by human labor chiefly and by a little technology. The internal prices of many produces are higher 30-50 percents than overseas, these produces includes wheat, corn, soybean, oil plants and so on., whose advantages of low price do not exist any long, and they must face drastic competition in international markets. 2. influences and factors of produce prices fluctuating (1)factors of produce prices fluctuating There are some macroscopical factors that include imbalance in supply and demand of total commodities on a society, dissonant between agricultural development and industrial growing, financial and monetary factors etc. The influences coming from innovation and policies include price fluctuating aroused by the conflict between new institutions and the old during innovation, misplays of macro-administer and conflicts between supply and demand in internal marketinduced by that the policy of foreign trade is not harmonious with policy of internal market. Factors come from market are distempered and low-grade market economy, lowclass standardization and poor regulative functions of markets, distempered laws of market economy inducing out-of-order management and lawless prosecution, benefit being intercepted by agencies. Institutional innovation is not thorough, and can't stabilize prices of market. In addition, there are some influences come from agricultural yield. (2)influences of produce price fluctuating Agriculture is a basic industry of national economy and a main source of the economy, and farm produces are necessities of human life. Farm produce price is regard with agricultural development, improving the living standards of farmers and stabilizing general price, as a foundational price, its change will influence largely on agricultural development, improving the living standards of farmers and stabilizing general price. 3. futures market (1)functions of futures market Futures exchange has become a mature, advanced trade mode after developing for more than one hundred years. The actuality depends on basic economic functions of futures market. Functions of futures market comprise evading risk and forming general price. With futures exchange and futures market developing, the two functions will be in favor of stabilizing farm produce price. (2)effects of futures market Effects of futures market in national economy comprise providing the tool of separating and diverting the price risk, redounding to stabilize national economy, supplying references for the governor constituting macro-economy policies, internationalizing internal economy, and making for perfect the system of market economy. Effects on micro-lay include locking the manufacture costs and acquiring anticipative profit, reducing the fee of circulation and stabilizing the relation between manufacture and distribution, heightening the ratio of contracts being performed, enlarging spot transactions and stock, stabilizing national economy. 4. stabilizing farm produce price by means of futures market Functions of futures market comprise evading risk and forming the general price, which is propitious to promote agricultural development and stabilization; futures market can form long-dated prices, which lessen blindness and destroy induced by the mechanism of market regulating agricultural production; futures market changes the half regulative mechanism of spot transactions market into a rounded market mechanism, and makes plan regulation assort with markets, and...
Keywords/Search Tags:agriculture product price, futures market, grey prediction, price fluctuation, correlativity analysis, Cobweb Theory, orthogonal lest square method
PDF Full Text Request
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