| Looking widely back on the international political changing process through modern ages, the rising of great power is the main motivation which causes the evolution of international power structure and layout. Obviously, the hegemonic war is the basic mechanism of converting the international system. Germany's rising before World War I typically mirrors such a case. Two steps are related to Germany'rising before World War I, namely the national unification and its following development. The national unification ended the disintegration of feudal system and created a favorable condition for the capitalist development. After unification, Germany made a rapid economic growth and relatively raised its national power comparing with Great Britain. Then, it followed the path of colonizing and fighting for the hegemony. For pursuing the"World policy"and acquiring the"domain under sunlight", Germany desperately developed its navy. The period of later 19th and early 20th witnessed the transition from free capitalism to monopoly capitalism, which is characterized by mutual alliance, arms expansion and war preparation, fierce arm race among imperialistic powers. Dong so is in order to divide the colonies and spheres of influence. Just under such an international background, the contradiction between Great Britain and Germany rapidly aggravated and finally leading to the breakout of World War I.The international politics cycle theory, mainly represented by Modelski's"leadership long period theory"and Gilpin's"hegemony stability theory", is trying to find out the law of international system shifting, by investigating the history of modern international system evolution, including the Germany'rising before World War I. Those scholars presented such a thesis"rising of great power - - hegemonic war - - international system shifting". The emerging great power would cause the imbalance of international system. In the whole historical process, war, especially hegemonic war, is the main mechanism of international system changes. Just through the hegemonic war, the balance of international system could be recovered. Then, the international system shifting could be achieved. To some extent, the international politics cycle theory is reasonable and could be verified by modern international relations history, but it scarcely explain the new relations among great powers and the new situations of international security following the World War II. After World War II, an effective mechanism of peaceful change is appearing in international system. There are a few factors which lead to the peaceful changes. First, illegality of war becomes the system value. The system value refers to some concept or ideal, which is accepted by majority nations within this system. They regard such a value as their guideline of actions. Through the anti-war endeavor of《League of Nations Treaty of alliance》and《Kellog- Briand Pact》,and the practices of prohibitions of force or force threat stipulated in the《Charter of the UN》,the illegality of war becomes the most important rule of international relations and international law in the world. Second, the emergence and development of nuclear weapons make the war"unimaginable". Nuclear weapon contains destructive result, causing military means and war target become disjointed mutually, as a result the only one use of nuclear weapon is the nucleus deterrent. An important reason why America-Soviet can maintain more than a 40 year cold peace is that there is a nuclear terror balance of mutual-assurance-destruction between the two sides. Third, as the globalization developed and the interdependence increasingly deepened, the interests among nations should be reconstructed and their policies should also be coordinated. The building and maturity of international regimes ensured the sustainable cooperation."We live in an era of interdependence."As the intensity of interdependence increased, the frequency of intercourse among nations would also be promoted. So, the possibility of both cooperation and conflicts would naturally increase. Just under this condition, the international regime could effectively limit the interest conflicts and strengthen the common interest among nations, and finally achieve the best collective fruit. In the late 20th, the world situation has changed a lot. The general tendency of maintaining peace and promoting development has come into being. Peace and development have become the topic of the times.The peaceful vicissitude of international system has provided an advantageous external condition for China's peaceful rise. In the meantime, China'rise will unavoidably render the change of international power and influence and even suffer some predicament. Therefore, China must clear up the mistrust from other countries and form a better international environment, through constructing a national image of peaceful rise. Firstly, China should actively enter into the international system, and set up a responsible image of great power. Secondly, gaining a foothold in Asia-Pacific region, and carrying out the good-neighbor policy. Thirdly, China should cleverly deal with the great country relations correctly, setting up a co-operational and responsible image. Fourthly, setting up an image of maintaining the proper rights and interests of developing countries, and continuing to seek the support of developing countries.This text is focused on the angle of combinations between history and reality, theory and practice. The conclusion is drawn by retrospecting the Germany'rise before World War I ,commenting the international politics cycle theory and discussing the factors that encouraged the peaceful vicissitude of international system following World War II. The conclusion is that a mechanism of peaceful vicissitude of international system could be combined with China's peaceful rise. The traditional road:"rising of great power - hegemonic war- international system shifting"could be surmounted. Confidently, China could break a new path of peaceful rising. |
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