The Impact Of Population Aging On China 's Economic Growth And China' S Agricultural Output

Since the implementation of the reform and opening up policy in the late1970s, China has achieved economic take-off and lasted up to30years or more of high-speed growth. China’s rapid economic growth as well as its long-term sustainability of momentum has turned admiration for other countries. And the path of China’s economic development has also become a hot topic of research for development economists. However the demographers and many economists from both home and abroad have warned that the negative impact of population aging on China’s future economic growth will be deepened, the population dividends for economic growth will change as the population burden, embarrassingly allowing China to enter the ageing society before getting rich. Since the late seventies of the last century China has enjoyed a strong labor force growth, but the future trend of population structure indicates that the labor force growth will slow down from now on, the absolute number will decline in the next few decades. In this paper, the second chapter analyzes the impact of these changes in the population characteristics on economic growth, the paper argues that:Firstly, although the aging of the population is deepening, but the aging of the population is a natural product of the economic and social development to a considerable extent. Improvement of human living standards and medical and other scientific and technical progress lead to a substantial increase in human life expectancy and reduce human mortality. Along with the birth rate’s continued and rapid decline and the proportion of the elderly population in the community continues to be upgraded, society continues to tend to be aging. The aging of the population is not a problem that Chinese economy will encounter alone, it is a problem that the rest of the world in general has been, is being or will encounter. Secondly, although China is faced with such a demographic characteristics constraint, but China still has a substantial potential to overcome such kind of demographic constraint such that China can realize its sustainable economic development.Based on the analysis of macro overview of China’s population aging, a variety of changes in the population characteristics that may affect China’s economic growth and prospect for China’s future, the paper tries to be lower into a relatively microscopic field, using provincial panel data and econometric models to try to explore that how China’s inter-provincial aging demographic indicators can affect inter-provincial primary industry output growth, foodstuff output growth and meat output growth. This paper argues that the development of agriculture is the foundation for a nation to develop the secondary industry and tertiary industry. The aging of the population and related security issues on agricultural development have been the discussions of many scholars, but those discussions are mostly qualitative discussion. This article uses a quantitative measurement of analytical methods, in order to be able to get some meaningful results. Having referred to many literatures about aging and economic growth, as well as other economic scholars’ research fruits in this field of research, we initially expected aging population indicators may have a nonlinear impact on primary industry output growth, foodstuff output growth, and meat output growth. Based on a considerable extension and expansion of the econometric model in the existing literature, our results show that, overall speaking, the aging population indicators exactly have nonlinear impact on the primary industry output growth, foodstuff output growth and meat growth. That is, those aging population indicators first will promote the growth of agricultural output until the proportion of the older population exceeds a certain limit. Then those aging population indicators will turn to negatively impact those agricultural output indicators.