Construction And Empirical Analysis Of Population Aging Dynamic Model

Population aging is the result of population age structure changes, refers to a country (region) age structure gradually aging, constantly transforming to the old type. The aging of the population have an impact on a series of important problems of social security, medical care, employment, income distribution, personnel training etc. China’s population has entered the aging society in twenty-first Century. The age structure of the population aging will bring new challenges to China’s future economic, social development. Therefore, from two aspects:theoretical and empirical to conduct the thorough research to the population aging has important theoretical and practical significance.The elderly population aging coefficient criterion is widely used, but this method is only concerned with the local state, and does not reflect the age structure of the aging process. The United Nations population age structure type of division standard includes four indicators:aging coefficient, children’s coefficient, the median age, aging index. However, four indicators were identified population type, often appear contradictory phenomenon. Therefore, to seek comprehensive scientific measure of the degree of population aging or model is crucial. In this paper, we construct several comprehensive model, and analyzed, the concrete content is as follows:Firstly, in this passage, we construct a subordinate function to define the type of population age model based on four indications of the United Nations. Passage gives the classification standards of aging based on the degree membership. According to the fifth and the sixth census data of the country, we apply the subordinate function model to analyze the age type and aging degree of Ethnic Minorities in China in ten years.Secondly, based on the subordinate function model, the passage constructs the comprehensive determine model of population aging degree. In this paper, the three models (Subordinate function model\ the comprehensive determine model of population aging degree\ Aging coefficient model) were applied to determine the degree of aging of the population (Resident population\ Resident household population) of the five cities. Simultaneously, we give the comparative analysis of the type and the degree of population aging in different models.Finally, the population pyramids figure of classic is extended, which can be intuitive analysis of the influence of floating population to population aging degree discrimination. In this paper, we study the city resident (permanent residence, foreign) characteristics of the population in the same age pyramid chart. The facts show that when the migration has some kind characteristics of the age structure of the population, the aging of the population age structure and the degree of permanent residence in the same city will be quite different.