A Research About The Influence Of Population Aging On Residents’ Consumption In The Eastern Region

Since the reform and opening up,the eastern region’s economy has developed rapidly.However,the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 had a serious impact on the economic development of the eastern region.With the constraints of the shortage of land resources and rising labor costs,the "land dividend" and "demographic dividend" in the eastern region have gradually disappeared.The economy of the eastern region accounts for slightly more than half of the national economy.In 2018,the consumption rate of residents in the eastern region was only 37.76%,which was much lower than that of other countries in the same period.The consumer demand in the eastern region has insufficient stimulating effect on economic growth,which hinders the transformation process of industrial upgrading in the eastern region.At the same time,the trend of population aging in the eastern region is increasing.Promoting the consumption of residents in the eastern region from the perspective of population aging is one of the important tasks to achieve high-quality development and high-quality life in the eastern region.From the perspective of the accelerated population aging in the eastern region,this article studies the relationship between population aging and residents’ consumption,deeply analyzes the changing trend of residents’ consumption rate,and discusses the impact of population aging on the economy and society,and effectively improves the eastern region Resident consumption.From the perspective of population aging,to give play to the fundamental role of resident consumption in the eastern region on economic growth,which aspects should be taken to expand consumption,especially the expansion of resident consumption? This paper uses the PVAR model and the gray correlation model to conduct an empirical study on the consumption of residents in the eastern region.First of all,this article simply sorts out the literature on population aging and residents’ consumption at home and abroad,summarizes and analyzes foreign classic theoretical hypotheses,and combs with the background of my country’s special population and economic policies,and sorts out the influence mechanism of population aging on residents’ consumption.Secondly,a descriptive statistical analysis of population aging and resident consumption trends in the eastern region is carried out to further summarize the characteristics of resident consumption under the aging of the population in the eastern region.Then,based on the PVAR model,it empirically studies the relationship between population aging and residents’ consumption in the eastern region,and further analyzes the effect of population aging in the eastern region on the various types of consumption composition of residents with the gray correlation model.Finally,based on the research conclusions of this article,corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.This article summarizes the following conclusions:(1)Most provinces and cities in the eastern region entered the ageing period earlier than the whole country.The large-scale elderly population,the rapid aging growth rate,and the inversion of urban and rural aging levels are all in the eastern region.The characteristics of regional aging,in general,the aging situation in the eastern region is severe.(2)The consumption rate of residents in the eastern region is relatively low,and the change trend of the consumption rate from 2000 to 2018 shows a "U-shape",and the consumption in the eastern region is not enough to stimulate economic growth.(3)The total consumption of urban and rural residents in the eastern region has gradually increased,but the gap in total consumption of urban and rural residents has widened,and rural residents have more room for improvement.The urban and rural consumption structure in the eastern region is constantly being adjusted and optimized,but the transformation and upgrading of the consumption structure of rural residents lags behind that in urban areas.(4)By constructing a PVAR model,it is concluded that the aging of the population in the eastern region will reduce the consumption level of residents,will inhibit economic growth in the short term,and have a positive effect on economic growth in the long term.(5)Through the analysis of the gray correlation model,the correlation between the elderly population on food and clothing consumption expenditure is relatively small,and the correlation coefficient between urban residents and education,culture and entertainment,transportation and communication is greater than that of rural residents,but rural residents are related to health care The degree coefficient is greater than that of urban residents.