Ming And Qing Dynasties Of China's Population Growth And Technological Changes

The endogenous knowledge accumulation model falls into the difficult position at the beginning of its establishment. So far, only Kremer (1992) used the world population data to carry on the only test. First research goal of this thesis is to provide experiencal support form China for the endogenous knowledge accumulation model. Although each kind of the endogenous knowledge accumulation model has the different view on the factors which play determining parts in the research productivity per person , but this thesis discovers linearity or the approximate linear correlation relations about technology limit population advancement and the population level which can be expressed by the population growth rate if we follows the train of thoughts of Kremer and integrate Malthus's suppose : technology can limit population . Thus this provides the possibility for testing the endogenous economic growth theory without the reliable data of output . But there is a premise: economic bodies don't have any technological exchange.The Ming and Qing Dynasties China implements the policy which stops all foreign contact may conform to the above requirement. Therefore, we utilize the population data of The Ming and Qing Dynasties to carry on the experiencal test about the endogenous knowledge accumulation model . The experiencal test is a foundation which below this article all deductions can establish, so we have done the extremely careful work. In order to avoid the false regression which can be possibly produced in time series, we have first carried on the data stationarity test, according to the test principle in actual econometric analysis, our linear regression cannot have the false regression. Although regression has the problem of autocorrelation , it can be solve successfully after we use AR(1) term to adjust the econometric model. We can see that population level and population growth rate have remarkable positive correlation. Our experiencal test supports the forecast which can be obtained from the endogenous knowledge accumulation model.Another question which must be solved in the thesis precise time and the...