Research On Price Fluctuation Of China 's Hogs Based On Equilibrium Price Theory

Until the February 2015, there are 389.73 million live pigs and 41.1 million breeding sows in stock. The production and consumption of pork are both the world No.1. Over 20 years, the price of the live pigs is fluctuated periodically and obviously. This phenomenon is called "periodical pig". The price of the live pig is greatly fluctuated, which gives rise to the significant change of the breeding profit. The industry of the breeding live pig has been through the period with either high profit or big losses. Until the February 2015, the amount of the breeding sows has already shrunken in the 14 months. The price of live pigs is lower than the average breeding cost over 8 months. The majority of the live pig breeding industry has the big losses. The captain chain of the live pig breeding industry is tight. The status quo of which is not optimistic. In this "new normal" economy, what kind of factors will affect the price of the live pigs, how the future will go, what kind of prospect the breeding industry of the live pig will face, which is positively deserved to be discussed.At present, although the study of the influence factors on the price of agricultural commodities has gradually matured at home and abroad, the basic concept, theoretical system have been gradually improved, the deeply study on the influence factors of our country pork price of live pigs needs further development, because of the study on the factors affecting our country pork price of live pigs has not yet been fully at the present stage. For it, based on the existing results about the analysis of the influence factors of pork prices at home and abroad, the paper establishes the analysis model of the influence factors of our country pork price of live pigs based on the related views of agricultural products market pattern of the theory of supply equilibrium price and economics for development, by the analysis of the development process of the main breeding pig countries and regions in the world and the influence factors of pork price fluctuation.By the empirical study, this paper draws the following conclusions: 1.In a country or region, the influence of residents’ income, population structure, the changes of residents’ consumption habit, the level of urbanization generating the trend of change of pork price in china, in the longer term. From the point of live pigs-breeding industry, the production cost of the industry, industry pattern, the pattern of industry supply and demand, the efficiency of management in industry, the change of breeding technology have a major impact on the price of pig and the change of "periodical pig". From the view of outside macroscopically environment, government policy oriented, seasonal demand, the change of macroeconomic, the degree of outbreak have amplified or inhibited effect on the fluctuation of pig price and the change of "periodical pig". 2. In the process of scale, "periodical pig" will be extended; fluctuation range of pork price will be smaller in china. Scale leads to slow down the change speed of breeding sows in stock in china. Disease has been effectively controlled. Large farms form advantage of technical barriers and financial barriers gradually. 3. Through the comparison of the development process of international and domestic major live pigs breeding countries, the article draws the conclusion: the scale transformation and the fastest-growing aquaculture enterprises will be stood out.