Study On The Design Of Pig Price Index Insurance Products In Yunnan Province

In recent years,under the correct leadership of the government and all levels of financial support,live pig industry in Yunnan Province has obtained continuously rapid development,continuously improve the production and quality of the live hogs,increasing industrialization and scale.The share of Yunnan Province in the national pig market continued to expand.But as the whole country, The pork price in Yunnan Province has experienced the “roller coaster” boom collapsed,not only seriously affect people’s consumption and life,but also brought significant influence to the pig industry chain in Yunnan Province.Based on these conditions,This paper designed a price insurance scheme for the characteristics of the pig production in Yunnan province with subject knowledge such as economics, statistics, econometrics and insurance actuarial science through hog market price fluctuations in Yunnan Province.We learn from the advanced experience at home and abroad,use statistical software EXCEL and econometrics software EVIEWS to spread and transfer market risk faced by pig farmers in Yunnan province.The main research contents and conclusions of this paper:First,this paper analysis hog prices time series in Yunnan Province by using moving average seasonal adjustment method and the H-P filter method.The analysis eliminates long-term trends and divides the price fluctuations of pig into three parts include seasonal fluctuations, cyclical fluctuations and random fluctuations.Then we discuss the change characteristics and reasons of each part.The results show that:During the year,the seasonal fluctuations characteristic of hog prices in Yunnan Province is obvious,and there is a multi-year cyclical fluctuations which need to experience about 3.5 years.Second, in view of the realistic foundation of national policy support and pig industry development in Yunnan province, it is necessary and feasible to launch hog price index insurance in Yunnan province.The hog price index insurance product selects pig grain ratio as payment standard is feasible in technology.Third, according to the pig grain ratio time series analysis,we infer the insurance period of hog price index insurance in the year of 2016 to 2017 is from June 2016 to June 2017.This paper uses Non-parametric Model of Information Diffusion to diffuse small sample and get the probability density of diffusion samples. Then we calculate the pure premium rate the hog price index insurance in Yunnan province at the time of insurance period.