A Study Of Fluctuation And Stable Mechanism Of Grain Price In China

Under the cue of grain price, according to the analysis of data and perspective of phenomena, the dissertation investigates the trend of grain price fluctuation of China from 1980's, concludes the factors which affect Chinese grain price, clarifies the mechanism and condition of grain price stabilization both from theory and practice. Based on demonstration analysis, this paper investigates the grain protective price maneuver and suggests an ideal grain price mechanism.Grain and grain price are one of hot topics in China these years. What kind of grain price mechanism China should have is always a controversy topic. Under the basic theory of grain price fluctuation and shaping mechanism, the dissertation tries to analyze grain price by the theories of microeconomics, plutonomy, system economics, and developing economics.The dissertation sums up and analyzes the grain price fluctuation track from 1980's, reviews the abnormity pinnacle and vale, finds out the effective factors. Based on microeconomics model, system economics theory, and existing literatures, the reason of the price fluctuation is found. By the quantitive calculation, the relationship of price fluctuation, product and consumption and Engel's coefficients is investigated. The study shows when grain output increases 1%, grain price will fall down 1.36%; when grain product acreage increases 1%, grain price will fall down 0.65%. Generally speaking, with the rise of grain price, comes a reduction of grain consumed. Both domestic consumption and grain exports will fall, but industrial consumption and seed use will rise. The actual price has little effect on feed price.Grain price is resulted from grain distribution system and grain distribution system is under the effect of Chinese government policy and grain circulation market. The dissertation analyzes the mechanism of Chinese futures market and futures price. It is shown that Chinese futures market needs further development and it can not afford the task of Chinese price center at this moment. The dissertation discusses the stabilization mechanism of Chinese grain price. First, it considers what kind of grain price mechanism is suitable for China. From the theory and practice of overseas and domestic mechanisms, it concludes that the grain price should be allowed to fluctuate to some extent. But when it is out of grade, Chinese government should take suitable control to gain price stability.Because of some practical questions of grain protective price, it is difficult to find the exact balance point of grain supply and demand. Chinese government should guide the grain price by law and policy, reduce and avoid direct control of grain price and make the market mechanism work. How to perfect Chinese grain price mechanism is a key issue of this paper. The dissertation suggests to conform chinese information system, strengthen the grain circulation, set up a Chinese National grain macro-control centor, define the function of Chinese National grain macro-control centor, and build up corresponding running mode.