Research On The Residents' Welfare Effects Of Grain Price Fluctuation

With the deepening of economic globalization and the integration of international market,the degree of openness of China's grain market continues to improve and the fluctuation of grain price becomes more and more sensitive.Frequent fluctuations of grain price will not only affect the interests of producers and consumers,but also affect the sustained and healthy development of the national economy.In recent years,There are some dilemma in grain market of China,on the one hand,grain market is facing the increase of grain production,import and stock,on the other hand,grain market is facing the rising of material cost,labor cost and land cost,these dilemma cause a structural imbalance between supply and demand market,and lead to the seriously distorted of grain price in domestic grain market,and then damage to the welfare effects of residents.As an important base of China's grain production,the major grain producing areas are related to the national food security and social stability.Based on this,this paper selects the residents of China's major grain producing areas as the starting point of the study to investigate the impact of fluctuations of grain prices on the welfare of residents in the major producing areas in China.Whether there are any inter provincial differences in the welfare effects of the provinces in the major producing areas with the grain price fluctuations.Through combing and summarizing the domestic and foreign literature and theory,using panel data from 1989 to 2015 in major grain producing areas,this paper firstly uses the method of qualitative analysis to analyse the change of production pattern in major grain producing areas of China and the fluctuation of grain price,and then utilizes Cobb-Douglas function model to construct the function model of food supply and food the demand function model,and makes use of the measuring software to estimate the price elasticity and income elasticity of grain,at the same time,this paper makes use of the relevant data to calculate the proportion of per capita food consumption expenditure accounted for the total expenditure for the residents(CR value),the proportion of per capita grain production output accounted for the total income for the residents(PR value),and the net income ratio of grain(NBR value).Further,through referring to the model of welfare effects of proposed by Minot N and Goletti F(2000),this paper builds the residents' welfareeffect model of grain price fluctuation,and gives an empirical analysis of residents' welfare effects of grain price fluctuation,and explores whether or not to exist the inter provincial differences for the residents' welfare change,in order to stabilize domestic grain prices,improve the adjustment optimization mechanism of grain supply structure,narrow the gap between regions and the gap between urban and rural areas,establish and perfect the regional differences in the agricultural policy,and further,this paper aid to provide theoretical and empirical basis and policy reference to promote deeply the agricultural supply side structural reform and enhance the residents' long-term total welfare.The major content of this paper is divided into six parts: The first part is an instroduction.The second part is the definition of relevant concepts and theoretical basis.This lays the theoretical foundation and analytical framework of this research.The third part is the qualitative analysis for the change of production pattern in major grain producing areas of China and the fluctuation of grain price.The fourth part is the quantitative research on the welfare effect of the grain price fluctuation of urban residents in major grain producing areas.The fifth part is the quantitative research on the welfare effect of the grain price fluctuation of rural residents in major grain producing areas.The sixth part is the major conclusions and policy recommendations.Through the research of residents' welfare effects on grain price fluctuation,the major conclusions of this paper are as follows: First,the CR value of the urban(rural)residents in the major grain producing areas and the PR value of the most provinces of rural residents generally show a downward trend at the same time,and the NBR value of the most provinces of rural residents shows the first decline after rising,the overall downward trend,but there are large inter provincial differences in the decline range of the urban and rural residents in the major grain producing areas.Secondly,the short term and long term changes in the per capita consumption welfare of urban residents and rural residents in the major grain producing areas are negatively correlated with the changes in the retail price of grain,and the change ranges of welfare of urban and rural residents exist obvious inter provincial differences.The long-term and short-term per capita consumption welfare and the short term per capita consumption welfare of urban residents are the same direction,except for individual years in some provinces;most years of rural residents in most provinces in the long-term and short-term per capita consumption welfare are the opposite direction.Thirdly,the short term and long term changes in the per capita production welfare of rural residents in the major grain producing areas is in the same direction with the change of the price of grain production in rural areas.and the change ranges of welfare of urban and rural residents exist obvious inter provincial differences.And most of the province's long term per capita production welfare are better than the short term per capita production welfare,except for individual provinces.Fourthly,the long-term per capita welfare ofurban residents is significantly better than the short-term per capita welfare,but in some years,the short-term per capita welfare of urban residents is better than the long-term per capita welfare.The long-term per capita total welfare of rural residents is significantly better than the short-term per capita total welfare,and before 2000,the grain price change in most provinces in the major grain producing areas give a hysteresis effect to the long-term per capita total welfare changes in rural residents,except for individual provinces.Fifthly,for rural residents,the per capita production welfare is the dominant factor in the per capita total welfare,except for individual provinces.Sixthly,the stability of grain price is more conducive to the increase of the total welfare of the residents,but there are obvious differences in the extent of increase.Seventhly,the welfare distribution effect of grain price fluctuation makes the urban residents,especially the middle and low income groups in urban become the major subject of the welfare loss.According to the above conclusions,this paper proposes some policy suggestion to build and improve the structural adjustment optimization mechanism of the grain supply system,stabilize the market price of grain,actively promote the development of the regional integration,establish the regional differentiation of agricultural policy,and establish and improve the funds input and guarantee mechanism of promoting grain in science and technology.