Elements Of The Theory Of International Dry Bulk Shipping Market Research

International dry-bulk shipping market full of competitiveness and change is an important part of international shipping market. It is very important to make the analysis of international dry-bulk shipping market, through which ship owners,cargo owners;agencies and port operators can make scientific forcast,deduce the future market scale and development,set up their strategies and risk wisely.As we know,the law of demand and supply is the basic principal in the theory of market, and the analysis of demand and supply is the main important part in the research of market. So the demand and supply of international dry-bulk shipping market and their result-the Baltic Freight Index are the main points of this dissertation.After, the effects among them are analyzed all-sided.Firstly, the total situation of international dry-bulk shipping market are analyzed briefly.The market features,correlative markets and developing trend are emphasized on.The demand of international dry-bulk shipping market is industrial raw material,which has feature of space-time unbalance.Through analysis of dry-bulk cargo,the conclusion is that the world economy will have tremendous effect on demand volume of dry-bulk cargo So, an autoregressive imaginary variable model is set up and used to analyse the relation with world economy in definite quantity.After summing-up the three features of international dry-bulk shipping market,the paper emphasizes on analysis of ship scale, ship age,and factors which effect supply.The Baltic Freight Index is so important to shipping market that every shipping operator and broker shoud take full care of it.Though the Baltic Freight Index has fierce fluctuation curve, it tends to long-term fluctuating increase characterized by Cubic Curve.On the basis of time sequence analysis,the price of international dry-bulk shipping takes on seasonal punctuation. Finally, an ARCH model is set up and very presicely modulates the Baltic Freight Index ,and a short-term prediction with tiny error has been made with EVIEWS.At the end of the dessertation.it is analysed about three factors how to effect each other in the system of demand , supply and the Baltic Freight Index .And then ,on the basis of analysis on price elasticity of demand ,the conclusion is that though price increases,a great deal of enlargement of capacity maybe not the best decision.So.at present, the international dry-bulk shipping market is booming,but the strategy of building ship a great deal is reasonable or not .which demands full consideration .Zhang Lanfang(Transportation Planning&Management)Directed by Zong Beihua...