The Environment Evaluation And Risk Analysis On Real Estate Investment Of The Cities In The Pearl River Delta Region

The real estate industry has great influence on the economy,people's livelihood and all aspects of the society.Over the past year,China's housing market has undergone many changes,the state has gradually released an important signal to tighten the policy.This year,many cities frequently introduced a series of housing market regulation and control policies,causing the parties a high degree of concern.The regional real estate market is still in a precarious situation,facing a large number of uncertain risks.It is of great significance for the stable development of the city and the establishment of the long-term mechanism of the real estate market regulation by correctly grasping the real estate investment environment and effectively identifying the risks,so as to formulate the corresponding coping strategies.In the context of the implementation of the Pearl River Delta Bay Development Plan and the building of the Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao Bay urban agglomeration,this paper starts from the spatial scale of the urban agglomeration and the metropolitan area,with the city as the smallest space unit.According to the statistics from 2006 to 2015,based on SPSS and CRYSTAL BALL software platform,using the principal component analysis method,cluster analysis method,VaR method base on Monte Carlo simulation as qualitative and quantitative methods to carry out the environment evaluation and risk analysis on real estate investment of the cities in Pearl River Delta region.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)In the city's real estate investment environment,from 2010 to 2015,the city's comprehensive score has an upward trend.The comprehensive scores of Guangzhou and Shenzhen ranked the top two,and the growth rate is faster,the gap between other cities is obvious,are leading core cities in the first echelon;Foshan's comprehensive score ranked third,but the score is still low,Dongguan and Zhuhai compete in the fourth and fifth,Huizhou and Zhongshan compete in the sixth and seventh,the comprehensive score curves of this five cities are close and gradient decline,as the second echelon,are challenging multi-polar cities;the comprehensive scores of Jiangmen and Zhaoqing has been ranked in the last bit,and the trend is not obvious,are the follow-up type of backward cities in the third echelon.The overall development of city's real estate investment environment is good,but the distribution pattern is stable.(2)The real estate investment risk of cities in Pearl River Delta region is low.Although there is a risk of decline in the real estate added value of Foshan and Huizhou,but the risk accumulation level is not high,the real estate market potential volatility is not strong,in fact,is likely to increase.The real estate added value of other cities are showing an upward trend.From the perspective of increments,Guangzhou and Shenzhen are the highest.Followed by Dongguan,Zhuhai and Jiangmen,rising potential is relatively large.Finally,Zhongshan and Zhaoqing,to maintain steady growth.