Shenzhen City Real Estate Bubble Empirical Research

This paper analyzes the real estate bubble of Shenzhen with the way of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis. The conclusion is: the real estate bubble of Shenzhen reduced as the increase of gross national product, expanded as the increase of corporation loan of the real estate. And the personal mortgage loan of housing which brought into effect at the end of 1997 has no obvious influence on the real estate bubble of Shenzhen City.Firstly, starting with the definition of bubble, this thesis explained the bubble and real estate bubble; Then, combined with the specialties of this physical assets and the characteristics of real estate market, analyzes the reasons of real estate bubble's emergence and the'possible effects in the process from birth to death of the bubble subjectively and objectively. Two typical real estate bubbles of Hainan and Beihai in China are enumerated in the second chapter.Overseas, the more authoritative measuring methods of real estate bubble include the method of resetting cost, the method of present market price and the method of reverting income. In the domestic researches, the scholars of the real estate Institute of Tsinghua University, Renmin University of China and Southeast University, have given prominence to the measure of real estate bubble. In this paper, we improve the measuring method, which was put forward by the real estate Institute of Tsinghua University. We use the following variables: the price of real estate divided by the mensal governable income, and the real estate corporation loan divided by the total loan of commercial bank, and the geometric mean of the two variables can measure the real estate bubble of Shenzhen City. Since the economy strength and fund is the pivotal factor in the real estate bubble, we used the data of time series from 1995 to 2003.Using the two variables: GDP of this locality and the domestic loan of corporation, we established the econometrics model of the real estate bubble of Shenzhen. On the other hand, our country carried mortgage loan into execution from August of 1997, so lots of funds entered into the real estate region from residents. So...