Research On Urban Ecological Security Early-warning Based On System Dynamics

With rapid economic and social development, people use natural resources and energy more and more, which causes a series of environmental problems such as environmental pollution, biological invasions and natural disasters and so on. In recent years, ecological security problems usually happen. It has become the focus people pay attention to. This paper adopts System Dynamics Method to establish urban ecological security early-warning model through the VENSIM simulation, predicts urban ecological security early-warning index data in Liaoning province in the period from 2009 to 2020 based on urban ecological security early-warning index data provided by the 14 cities in the period from 1999 to 2008. The paper uses P-S-R model to establish an assessment indicator system, and calculates the indexes of urban ecological security early-warning system by using the formula. The dynamic development of urban ecological security is analyzed according to the index in the period from 2008 to 2020.The research result shows, 14 cities in Liaoning can be sorted into three categories in terms of ecological security early-warning in the period from 2008 to 2020: safe region, endangered region and degraded region. The safe region is composed of Shenyang, Dalian, Panjin, Liaoyang, Anshan and Fushun; the endangered region is composed of Tieling, Zhao yang, Fuxin, Dandong, Yingkou and Huludao; and the degraded region is composed of Benxi and Jinzhou. The endangered region and the degraded region are regarded as early-warning region. It is mainly in the north-west of Liaoning. The conclusion is that ecological security situation in the other cities is serious in a short and medium time by studying the dynamic development of urban ecological security of Liaoning.The paper analyzes predicted early-warning index data of Liaoning in the period from 2009 to 2020 by principle component analysis to look for early-warning factors to make actual development plans. Using SPSS software, the analysis result is below: the main early-warning factors of urban ecological security in Liaoning can be concluded as six categories: individual resource, urban social structure, water resource state, energy consumption, urban economic structure and environmental disasters.At last, the ecological regulatory countermeasures are put forth in order to provide decision support for relevant departments of the government of Liaoning province.