Empirical Research On The Relationships Between Carbon Emissions And Export Trade In China

In the context of global warming and the raising pressure of carbon emission reduction from the international society, undoubtedly ,to develop low-carbon economy will become the main trend in the future.International trade,as an important part of global economy system,will also have to go according to the rule of low-carbon economy. Thus it has strong practical significance to investigate the relationships between export and carbon emissions and explain the power driving the increase of carbon emissions for finding the ways to reduce the carbon emissions and to win more carbon emission space in the world.This paper firstly studies the relationships between export and carbon emissions according to econometric model. The results of Johansen cointegration test shows that carbon emissions and exports in China have the long run cointegration relationships; The results of Error Correction Model (ECM) shows that short-term changes in export have positive effects on carbon dioxide emissions of China; The results of granger causality test shows that China's exports are the Granger cause of carbon emission, This means that export has brought carbon emissions while it promotes economic growth, and also indicates China's export is extensive and intensive in energy consumption, Through the Model dynamic predictions, China's carbon emissions during the 12th Five -Year Plan period will be 1.3 times as much as the carbon emission in 2009,if China continues with the existing development pattern and the size of the export trade at its current pace.Besides, this paper calculates all industry's carbon emissions and all industry's export carbon emissions of 2002,2005,2007,2009 by input-output method, in order to analyze the influence of export to China's carbon emissions from the industry level, this paper then elaborates the carbon emission intensity of all industries, the industry structure of carbon emission and the industry structure of export carbon emission respectively. At last this paper proposes the measures on the reduction of Carbon emission...