The Analysis Of Error On Highway Traffic Volume Prediction

With the rapid development of our national economy and society, transport business and logistics business improve apparently. The highway was conceived as a sort of common and important carrier, it played an important role in the national economy and society. In the planning and construction of highway, the traffic volume prediction is one of the important compositions of feasibility research of highway construction, the result of the traffic volume prediction is the main foundation of construction scale and standard. So, traffic volume predicted scientifically and reasonably can accurately grasp trends of the future traffic volume, thus provide reliable basis for road network planning, the highway project feasibility research and the highway construction project sorting. This paper made a comparison between the prediction and the actual volume, through the analysis found the error. The error mainly shows:traffic volume prediction was higher than the actual in the previous period, they are similar in the middle period, it is difficult to get the accurate prediction in the long-term.Based on highway traffic volume composed, form mechanism and influencing factors, this paper recommends four-stage traffic predicting method, sums up the total process of predicting work, expounds the predicting methods of the highway traffic volume composed; by analyzing the error between the prediction and the actual volume of some Research on Post Evaluation of Highway Construction Project, this paper sums up objective law of highway traffic volume predicting error, builds the system of the reasons brought error, and looks for the reasons in total system, then, submits improvement methods and suggestion; lastly, it took Machangyuan-Ping'an highway for example, to analysis the reason Machangyuan-Ping'an highway prediction incorrectness and proposed some corresponding causes.