Study On Passenger Flow Diversion Between Regular Public Transit And Proposed Rail Transit Based On Discrete Choice Model.

With the rapid development of rail transit in major cities in China, rail transit has become an important component of the main transport modes which will share part of the pressure of city ground public transportation.To grasp the principle of the transformation of passengers from bus to rail transit after the building of rail transit, this paper tries to establish the model of passengers transformation and discusses this issue based on the Xi'an subway.This paper starts from the travel of passengers and chooses the sp survey method to supply the essential basic data. It also applies to the survey which is about the travelling desire of Xi'an Passengers in 2009; Through using the elasticity analyze based on disaggregate logit model, this paper analyzes the sensibility of travel time and travel fees on the subway passengers transformation; this paper tries to anticipate the influence principle of the rail price to the the passengers transformation and also analyzes the competitive point between bus and rail transit and raises the idea of transportation policy based on elasticity analyze.Research result reflects that the trip cost, distance and time take the important part in the issue which influences passengers transformation to subway; this paper constructs the passengers transformation model based on MNL, The application of model reflects the sensibility of subway passengers transformation of travel fees is bigger than sensibility of travel time. Based on elasticity analyze of price, the price of Xi'an subway is 3.5-7, it is more bigger of lower than 3.5 or higher than 7.7 yuan is the highest Ticket fare of the current ticketing system.