Risk Analysis Of Earth-rock Dam Based On Unascertained Analytic Network Process

The earth-rock dam is the main dam form in domestic. However, due to historical reasons, there are various kinds of hidden troubles. To strengthen earth-rock dam risk analysis can not only guide danger control and reinforcement and provide basis for risk management, but also guarantee people's lives and property security and economic development.According to risk analysis's dependance on expert's judgment on unascertained information, a new method named unascertained-analytic network process was proposed combining unascertained measure comprehensive evaluation model with analytic network process. The model was then applied to an earth-rock dam's risk analysis. The result was consistent with the fact, which indicated that the proposed method is feasible. The results as follows:(1) The synthesis problem came from unascertained conclusions of expert system was translated into unascertained rational number or blind date'operational issues by unascertained mathematical acknowledge, which synthesized the evaluations of experts on qualitative indexes.(2) Risk index weight was calculated by analytic network process, which could consider the relativity of earth-rock dam's risk indicator.(3) A new method named unascertained-analytic network process was proposed combining unascertained measure comprehensive evaluation model with analytic network process. Unascertained measurement function can ascertain single index measure of quantitative and qualitative indexes which fulfilled'unitary'and 'additivity'. And the comprehensive indexes measure can be got by combining single index measure and the weight got from analytic network process. Finally a risk assessment on earth-rock dam can be made by incredible recognition rule.(4) Unascertained analytic network process was used on Hou-si-he reservoir dam. The result was consistent with the fact, which indicated that the proposed method is feasible.