Risk Evaluate Of Raw Material Supply In Hydropower Development Project

Hydropower development project has high expectations on the supply of raw materials, but the inadequate supply of raw materials which occurs sometimes has attracted attention of constrution units and research scholars. The scale of hydropower development project under construction in China is the largest in the world, and its pace is also the fastest. Therefore how to estimate and evaluate raw material supply efficiently in hydropower development project has become an urgent issue in our country.This thesis takes the yalong river hydropower development project of Ertan Company as the research object. Through comprehensive analysis of raw material supply risk, methods of risk identification, estimation and evaluation were discussed. First, this thesis describes details of construction raw material supply and general methods of risk identification. And through the combination of Delphi method and security check table, a two level risk index system of risk factors was established. Then, experts and researchers who are familiar with raw material supply were pleased to estimate the level of risk probability and grade through questionnaire based on historical data, experiences and subjective judgments, and results of qualitative estimation were received. At last, two-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to receive the risk level of entire raw material supply, which could quantitative the qualitative results. Meanwhile, in order to eliminate the subjectivity of experts, through measuring authority, familiarity and fairness of experts involved, the weight of each expert was obtained, which was used in the process of fuzzy matrix establishment.Through the research of raw material supply risk in hydropower development project in the thesis, the level of raw material supply risk identification, estimation and evaluation was raised, thus reduced risk and loss of money. On the other hand, the results provide information for decision-making of entire construction. Therefore, this thesis has important engineering significance.