Risk Analysis Of Construction Diversion In Large-scale Rebuilding Hydropower Project And Impacts Of Extreme Weather

Construction diversion is a significant part of hydraulic engineering project construction which is a key factor of whole project that carries through from beginning to end of the whole construction process. Numbers of dangerous reservoirs need to be reinforced or rebuilt as the hydraulic engineering developed rapidly in our country. Using the primary dam to retain water is an economical diversion scheme for large reconstruction hydraulic engineering project of. This topic deserves to be studied whether the risk analysis of diversion scheme in new project is suitable to that in reconstruction project.Besides, extreme weather happens from time to time, risk analysis of construction diversion which considers the extreme weather is also desirable to be discussed.According to the problems mentioned above, works in following aspects have been done:⑴Analyzing the stochastic uncertainty factors that influence the construction and diversion of new projects and their distribution. Constructing the risk calculation model of diversion based on Monte-Carlo method according to comprehensive comparison of several risk calculation methods.⑵Redefining the risk analysis of construction diversion in reconstruction project and modifying the risk analysis calculation model based on the characteristics of large reconstruction hydraulic engineering project that different from new project.⑶Spatial and temporal distribution of water resource varies for the variation of weather that leads to the change of global hydrological cycle. Variation of precipitation influences the variation of flood by influencing the form of flow which has direct impacts on diversion in hydraulic engineering construction. Hence, it is necessary to analyze the trend of future precipitation in our country.⑷Calculating the risk rate of diversion scheme and analyzing the results by using the risk analysis method proposed in this paper based on an example of construction diversion in hydraulic reconstruction engineering project which regard the primary dam as upstream cofferdam while considering the characteristics of diversion in this type of project.