| In recent years,economic and social development has continued,rapid and comprehensive progress in science and technology,while water conservancy construction has driven rapid economic development,it has also brought huge economic pressure to the government.For the purpose of alleviating the financial burden faced by the government and introducing advanced technology,with the ultimate goal of introducing advanced technology,improving management,and promoting the smooth construction and operation of engineering projects,so that PPP mode can effectively improve the quality and efficiency of water conservancy project construction,but because the PPP model is applied to water conservancy project,it has double complexity,there are different risks in all stages of the whole life cycle,and the influencing factors are not easy to determine,which makes the social capital bear a great risk in the process of water conservancy project investment.Therefore,it is of great significance to conduct detailed research and analysis on the risks faced by the project throughout its life cycle.From the perspective of social capital,this paper combines theoretical analysis and analysis of examples to study the risk management issues facing the full life cycle of PPP projects in water conservancy projects,and focuses on the identification and evaluation of risks.First introduced the research background and significance of this article,analyzed the current status of risk management research at home and abroad,based on the research of domestic and foreign scholars,put forward adopted;Theoretical concepts,including characteristics of water conservancy projects,PPP mode related theories,risk management theories,AHP related theories and life cycle related theories,etc;By reading a lot of literature,consulting experts in related fields and analyzing with engineering examples,this paper expounds the concepts of PPP model related theory,risk management theory.Secondly,according to the characteristics of the water conservancy project PPP project risk and the methods and processes of risk identification,the life cycle of the water conservancy project PPP project is divided into six main stages: project preparation stage,bidding stage,financing stage,construction stage,concession operation 3.The project transfer phase.44 risk factors were initially identified in stages and the original risk list was established.By means of Delphi method,27 risk factors were selected from 44 initial risk factors by means of means comparison and ANOVA.Based on the purpose and principle of risk assessment again,a scientific method is used to conduct a comprehensiveand systematic assessment of risks.According to the constructed risk evaluation index system,the comprehensive use of the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy value method complement each other’s advantages and use the difference coefficient to modify the subjective weight,and finally obtain a reasonable weight result.Using fuzzy mathematical theory,the project is evaluated for risk based on the constructed fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of PPP project risk for water conservancy projects.The research ideas and evaluation methods of risk assessment for PPP projects of water conservancy projects have been further expanded.Finally,in order to verify the rationality of the established model,a calculation example was specially selected for analysis and calculation,and the comprehensive membership degree was calculated by two-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,and the project risk was determined to be between a low risk and a medium risk.Capital participation.A study on the risk assessment method of the whole life cycle of water conservancy project PPP can not only help investors to face all kinds of risks comprehensively and rationally,but also provide the basis for smooth decision,so as to ensure the smooth completion of the project.Reducing costs while increasing benefits can help project participants to prevent and avoid project risks in a timely manner. |
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