Prediction Research Of Product Technology Evolution Based On TRIZ Theory

In TRIZ theory any of the products are supported by technical systems through its quality and marketing, but the technical system is in constant evolution and experienced of infancy, growth, maturity and withdrawal four stages in total, the performance in time domain is natural parameters along the S-curve growth. Current products in the position of technical system evolution is its technology maturity, the process of predict the current product technology maturity is the prediction of product technology maturity. Based on TRIZ theory analysis of technical system evolution, then put forward a definition of product technology maturity and its prediction, and discussed the significance of predicting the product technology maturity from various aspects. By analyzing existing prediction methods of product technology maturity, found that these methods in data acquisition, algorithms, accuracy and so on have some problem.Integrated existing results, combined with our country's practice, based on the S-curve characteristics of product technology maturity model, proposed a new method of using Bass model and Mansfield model to discuss the good characteristics between Bass model and its coefficient for predicting the maturity of product technology, discuss the relationship between the new model and existing models, the significance of new model coefficients in economic field, using new model of TRIZ theory based collection to predict the domestic refrigerator industry.For some of the products in the case of full technological monopoly enterprises, through the rate of progress of their own products performance and unit rate of technological content of products to determine and assist the prediction of their products technology maturity. Thereby to help the particular companies to recognize their own technical level and potential developments, size up the situation to carry out technical innovation, reduce risks of investment and enhance the efficiency, create and maintain their competitive advantage.