The Risk Index Based On The Monte-carlo Simulation And Apply It In Railway Engineering

Many managers of the projects paid attention to the management of the risk, and the management of the risk became a hot issue on the international research. This research object is the risk of the railway engineering construction, the environment of the railway construction is diversiform and complex, so the risk of the period and cost is very big. This paper is aimed at the quantitative problem of the risk, which is caused by the quality problem of the railway engineering project, the paper research the risk index of the progress and cost using the high-tech "simulation modeling", transform the risk to a digital, which can Compare with earnings.is concise and practical. Through to research the risk index of the project.the schedule risk and the cost risk of the engineering construction will get a good control, and make the risk from Not to be quantified to quantitative,and the risk can be compared with the benefit value.At last, realize the project benefit maximizationIn recent years, many scholars have made a lot of research in risk estimates, but these studies exist some disputes, such as the judgment of the risk has subjectivity and the method to calculation the value of the risk is very complicated etc. On the study of before scholars, this paper puts forward a quantitative method of risk. The main content of this paper are as follows:(1) Using the computer simulation technology, produce the execution time of each task with the random sampling method.(2) Using the progress-cost model of Weibull distribution, calculate the execution cost of each task.(3) Using the membership function of the fuzzy, calculate the progress risk index and the cost risk index of each task.(4)Choose Matlab mathematical tools to compile the monte-carlo simulation program, and calculate the execution time and cost of each task, then draw the figures of the cost risk, the schedule risk the risk jointing of the schedule and cost.Finally, through the project:Qing he gou bridge project, realize the risk model. The results of the risk calculation provide very good scientific basis, for the Project management to make decisions.