Power Load Forecast And "Twelfth-Five-Year" Planning Study For Dongyang Power Grid

In order to meet the rapid economic development needs, the electric power construction department must conduct appropriate power grid planning; to think of the user demands of high-quality and reliable power transmission in advance, so as to ensure users with secure and reliable power supply. Good and accurate planning could guarantee the state and the society with reliable electricity supply and save public funds in big amount.First of all, the article analyzes the current status of Dongyang power grid, with the consideration of the economic development in the city, referring to the existing weak links and problems. Secondly, a variety of load forecasting methods such as annual-growth-rate-forecasting, regression-analysis, forecasting-by-industry, forecasting-by-region are applied in the article to analyze and predict the overall power consumption, as well as the maximum power demand in Dongyang, in short and medium term. Through the analysis to the urban space for the city development and the electric load density, it comes out with the load forecasting in long term. Some planning improvement goals, the standard wiring method for high-voltage grid, the standard wiring method for distribution network in short and long term are also presented in the article and they define the goal of the Twelfth-Five-Year plan for power grid construction/reconstruction in Dongyang. High-voltage grid construction planning, substation construction planning, and goals of planning for the distribution network "construction are specified-according to the-ratio requirem ent of the supply capacity over the consumption capacity; "Project Reserves" concept is presented, it's about implementing project based on "fuzzy planning on blind information" ensuring reserves for common projects, defining annual project plan by utilizing the probability statistics and insuring the projects a reliable ground every year. Future gallery is planned and scheduled accordingly. Relevant high-voltage distribution gallery is taken into account and the planning proposal is presented for its control and management. At last in the article, the technology development goals required by the power grid construction in Dongyang are clarified, as well as the detailed key technology development objectives.Through the research to the Twelfth-Five-Year plan of Dongyang power grid, the development direction of Dongyang power grid and its dependent technology are determined. It can optimize the power network structure, solve the problems caused by the bottom neck of the power network, phase out the obsolete equipment causing high energy losses, manage the potential safety hazard in the power network, improve the overall economic efficiency of power grids, improve the power quality and reliability, construct energy-saving and environment-friendly power grid and solve the coordination problems between the power grid construction and the overall development plan in the region, so as to serve better for the economic development in Dongyang. Urban power grid construction planning in other cities with similar conditions could also refer to the article.