Research On Energy Security Measuring And Early Warning Model With Its Application In Power System

Energy security is vital to both national security and sustainable development of economics, China is a country relatively short of energy thus highly emphasis needs to be put on energy security. In recent years, China's dependence on foreign oil continued to rise, short supply problem appeared several times on coal, natural gas, and electricity etc, energy conservation pressure, declining environmental carrying capacity raised new questions for energy security as well. Measure of energy security issues involved with a wide range of early warning, data indicators and other things, the system and the relationship between various factors are complex, thus the overall system of Energy-Environment-Economy needs to be considered. This paper research on a model for energy security early-warning method, binding emission reduction targets, energy security and environmental protection and economic development of relations, building the index system of energy security measurement and through the PCA-AR model, estimating and analyzing the safety of the power system. Based on the LMDI model analyze the relationship between the energy use and economic development. This paper obtained respectively, from2003to2005, early-warning interval when the lower power subsystem safety is at risk, from2006to2010in the range of concern, and in2011in the warning range. The energy intensity of plays an important role in the reduction of energy consumption and carbon emissions, but the impact has been weaker gradually, output scale has been the most important direct reason of growth in carbon emissions. Highly emphasis should be drawn to the to the security of the power system in the future, and it's hard to control it by control of the development of economics. The power subsystem shows a significant meaning for energy conservation and protection of national energy security, thus this should be considered from the source of energy supply the process of energy use, and the final part of energy use, in order to environment, the relationship between the economic system to carry out energy conservation, enhanced energy security and the measures proposed conclusions. Recommended the construction of energy-environment-an integrated system of economic modeling to develop a more scientific energy development strategic planning, legislation established a dedicated information of China's energyinstitutions in three areas to long-term strategic importance to energy security of this vital national security issues.