The Risk Assessment Research On Hazardous Chemical Vessels In The Harbor Waters With Uncertain Information

With the economy developing, shipments of dangerous goods and chemical goods is increasing year by year along the China coasts, ship accidents that create environmental pollution problems caused by hazardous chemical vessels attract people's attention. How to reduce the accidents of hazardous chemical vessels is the top priority of the Marine anti-fouling work. Water Transportation of Dangerous Goods is a systematic project involving many links and the influencing factors are complex."Man-machine-environment-management" is the composition of safe navigation operating system of hazardous chemical vessels in harbor waters, and also is a fundamental part of the whole evaluation system. In harbor waters, the factors of risk evaluation model about hazardous chemical vessels are on all sides and each sub-factor change is likely to affect the security of the entire system.Using the theory of risk analysis, this paper has a research on methods of risk assessment of hazardous chemical vessels in harbor waters and quantitative analysis of the uncertain information involved in the evaluation process, and then risk assessment analysis model of hazardous chemical vessels is built in harbor waters. In order to improve the efficiency of risk decision-making, this paper has an analysis on risk assessment model by using the data of Rizhao port.The thesis'work includes the following four aspects:First, this paper has a discussion on the relationship between the risk of hazardous chemical vessels in harbor waters and uncertainty information, and discusses the composition of uncertainty information in harbor waters and quantitative methods.Second, based on the characteristics of hazardous chemical vessels'operation in harbor waters, this paper has a recognition on risk factors of hazardous chemical vessels in harbor waters.Third, Awareness of the risks in the randomness, fuzziness, incompleteness, imperfection, uncertain information content, this paper builds a risk assessment model by using the Bayesian theory, fuzzy set theory, gray theory and unascertained mathematics tools.Finally, this paper has a case study on the built model. In order to improve the efficiency of risk decision-making, this paper has an analysis on risk assessment model by using the data of Rizhao port.Risk assessment and management is a hot issues in industry at home and abroad ship of dangerous goods transport; This paper has a research on risk assessment of hazardous chemical vessels with uncertain information, which enhances port security, production and management level, and ensure the safe transportation of hazardous and chemical goods. Therefore, this paper will promote the development of marine resources, marine environmental protection and sustainable development of marine traffic. The purpose of building the risk assessment model of hazardous chemical vessels in harbor waters is to make ship navigation safety management scientific, systematic; standardized and to reduce high-risk factor and accident rate in the ship contained hazardous chemicals. So that the harbor waters will be cleaner, safer voyage of hazardous chemical vessels.