A Study Of The Contingent Macro-forecast Improvement Of Guangdong Ocean And Fishery

With the progress of human society and the development of economic society, the uncertain factors of the natural environment are increasing. Now that the Guangtong province is currently at the crisis of economic reform and development, how to forecast and handle or deal with all sorts of contingent public affairs, which are directly involved with the interests of the people and the stable development of the economic society, is the key point of constructing a powerful and harmonious province of Guangdong. During these years, the development of Guangdong marine economy is by far faster than the average national economic development, thus Guangdong is gradually becoming one of the powerful provinces. However, the storm tides, disasterous waves, ocean ices, seismic sea waves, crimson tides, biological disasters and other natural disasters as well as over-fishing, pollution of ocean projects and waters, overflow of oil and other artificial disaters are all seriously threatening the marine and fishery economy of Guangdong Province. The contradiction of the marine and fishery industry and natural resources and invironment is becoming increasingly serious and intense, the situation of handling natural and artificial disasters more severe. Therefore, the promotion of the contingent macro-forecast of Guangdong marine fishery and the improvement of the systems of forecasting and protecting disasters are of great significance for the social and economic development of Guangdong Province. This study centers on the capacity of the contingent managenments of Guangdong marine fishery, and aims at accelerating the economic development of Guangdong Province. By considering the present problems of the contingent macro-forecasting of Guangdong marine fishery, this thesis puts forward a systematic design of the contingent macro-forecasting of marine fishery and a protection scheme for efficiently promoting this contingent macro-forecast.This thesis consists of seven parts. Part One:Introduction.A brief introduction or a servey of the study background home and abroad, the significance and the methods, and makes clear the major content. Part Two, mainly deals with the theoretical study. On the basis of understanding the necessary theoretical implication of the contingent macro-forecast of marine fishery and its basic classification,expounds the necessity and the importance of this study. Part Three is a case study. Based on the pesent situation of the contingent macro-forecast of Guangdong marine fishery,it puts forward the majior problems in the process of making up and putting into motion the contingent macro-forecast of Guangdong marine fishery, and then further analyzes the causes of these problems from the perspective of the contingent management systems of marine fishery. Part Four,raises the theoretical foundation for solving problems in accordance with the contingent macro-forecast of Guangdong Ocean and Fishery, including the theories of public managements, crisis forecast,crisis treatment and aftermatch management.Part Five puts forward the guiding ideology,the basic principles and tasks of the contingent macro-forecast of marine fishery.Part Six discusses the counter-measures. Based on the parts above, this part raises some systematic designs of the contingent macro-forecast and some relevant measures for its effective working.The last part is a summary of this thesis. It makes a conclusion and establishes a research goal of our future efforts.