Measurement Of The Driving Effects On Water Utilization Efficiency Change And Zoning Analysis In China

In this paper, based on the analysis of the level of economic development in China, water resources distribution and industry, the factor decomposition model under the extended Kaya identity was established, the decomposition model was solved by the method of LMDI(Longarithmic Mean Divisia Index), then the driving effects of the five factors were analyzed and the main factors were determined, which may useful for the understanding of water utilization efficiency change from 1997 to 2008 in China.As analyzing the changes in China's industrial water-driven effects as adopting the ISODATA cluster model, the driving effects of four factors were clustered in space, then the analysis of spatial difference characteristics was carried out. The results showed that: (1)The economy growth and population expasion increased water utilization, whose average effect are 670.47×108m3and 33.47×108m3from 1997 to 2007,and industrial structure and water utilization intensity decrease water utilization, whose average effects from 1997 to 2007 are -208.62 m3and -480.62 m3respectively in the same phase;(2)The average contribution ratio of economy development level and population size are 1056.96% and 12.83% from 1997 to 2007, and the ones of industrial structure and water utilization intensity are -117.64% and -852.16%, so the economy development level and water utilization intensity are the determined factors for water utilization change, and the effect of population size should not be neglected;(3)The spatial difference of various effects reflect such a phenomenon that the effect function has a consaguineous relationship with the economy development level, industrial foundation, technical level and population scale, so the implement of"zero increase"and"negative increase"goal should be in the continuous development of nation economy, and the water shortage problem also should be solved by inproving the economy developmentin level. The result of this research is of significance for exactly understanding the relation of the industrial water utilization and economy development, and also has certain reference significance for the regulation of industry policy and sustainable development.As analyzing the changes in China's industrial water-driven effects as adopting the minimum variance, zoning the driving effects of five factors to analysis. The results showed that: the industrial water utilization efficiency and economy development level are the main reason to upgrate water efficiency of China; the effect of water resources development is the promoter action sometimes,and sometimes displays for the hindrance function; optimization of water utilization structure and the decrease of water resources per capita promoted the increase of total water utilization efficiency of China. The result of this research is of significance for exactly understanding the relation of the water utilization efficiency and economy development, and also has certain reference significance for the regulation of industrial water utilization structure and sustainable development.