The Safety Assessment And Early Warning Mechanism Of China'smarine Shipping Industry

This paper analyzes the industry safety concept comprehensively, classifies the industrial safety theory and warning mechanism theory. By referencing and correcting the Data Envelopment Analysis method, we calculate the safety value of China's marine shipbuilding industry. Considering the safety factors of China's marine shipbuilding industry, this paper constructs the safety assessment index system of China's marine shipbuilding industry, based on the safety evaluation method and warning mechanism of marine industry.Based on the safety assessment model of the marine shipbuilding industry, this paper calculates the safety value of the marine shipbuilding industry between 1999 and 2008. The econometric analysis results show that China's marine shipbuilding industry is safe in 1999 and 2006; but from 2000 to 2003, there are certain safety hazards in our marine shipbuilding industry; due to improvement of the world economic and trade condition, it is in a comparative safety from 2004 to 2008. According to the MATLAB software processing results, we constructed new decision unit of China's marine shipbuilding industry, put forward that the corresponding year which is comparative safe and unsafe should adjust the productive input and output elements.Considering the internal and outer factors affecting the industrial safety, we analysis the elements affect the marine shipbuilding industry safety comprehensively, establish the safety warning index system suitable for China's marine shipbuilding industry, construct the safety pre-warning system by using DEA method.Chapter 1, the related industry safety and warning mechanism theory. The article definite the industrial safety concept, classifies the industrial safety theory and warning mechanism theory.Chapter 2, the safety assessment model of the marine shipbuilding industry and warning mechanism. This article analysis the most representative industrial safety evaluation index system, industry safety warning mechanism and industrial safety index processing method, based on the constructing principle. As the marine shipbuilding system is a complex system with multiple inputs and output, DEA is a good evaluation method for evaluating the safety value of complex system.Chapter 3, establish DEA safety assessment model. In this part, we analyze the original DEA model, and revise it for considering lag effect the marine technology innovation on output. We designed the safety assessment index system of China's marine shipbuilding industry, based on the safety evaluation principle, and construct the DEA model for safety evaluation.Chapter 4, empirical study of China's marine shipbuilding industry safety evaluation. According to the safety assessment index system of the marine shipbuilding industry, we choose the safety situation of China's marine shipbuilding industry from 1999 to 2008 as the evaluation objects.Chapter 5, establish warning mechanism of China's marine shipbuilding industry. Make sure the pre-warning operation target of China's marine shipbuilding industry, considering the internal and outer factors affecting the industrial safety, construct the safety pre-warning system.Chapter 6, countermeasures and proposals. According to the problems in China's marine shipbuilding industry, put forward corresponding countermeasures.Chapter 7, conclusion and prospects. This chapter elaborates on the major contents and conclusions of this paper, points out the insufficient and clears the further research direction and gives the prospects.