China’s Shipbuilding Industry Overcapacity And Early Warning Research

Shipbuilding industry is China’s strategic industry. In the world shipbuilding demandinto cyclical adjustment situation, China’s shipbuilding industry is facing tremendouspressure with excess capacity. Due to the shipbuilding’s large products investment, longconstruction period and long industrial chain, the operation of the shipbuilding industry hasobvious lag resulting the influence degree of the damage produced by its overcapacity islarger and in the short time is difficult to eliminate. To prevent shipbuilding sharpfluctuations caused by overcapacity, keep the healthy development of China’s shipbuildingindustry, it is necessary to carry out the shipbuilding industry overcapacity identification,definition, evaluation and early warning research.This paper focuses on four areas of overcapacity identification, definition, overcapacityevaluation, overcapacity early-warning and overcapacity coping strategies for China’sshipbuilding industry. Firstly, this paper conducts shipbuilding industrial overcapacitydefinition by using qualitative method. Secondly, using entropy value method research onChina’s shipbuilding industry overcapacity evaluation. Then, using entropy value methodcombined with BP neural network method for shipbuilding industry overcapacityearly-warning. Based on the research, proposed countermeasures and suggestions to dealwith shipbuilding overcapacity.For aspect of overcapacity identification, according to the related research ofovercapacity combining with the characteristics of shipbuilding industry itself, respectivelyfrom industry benefits, fixed assets, production-demand and handheld orders, workforce andproduction cost in five aspects to identify the shipbuilding industry overcapacity. For aspectof overcapacity definition, firstly with reference to research on industrial safety estimation,the degree of shipbuilding overcapacity is divided into severe overcapacity, significantovercapacity, safety, capacity planning, capacity bottlenecks five levels. What’s more,3σtheory in mathematical statistics is used in the overcapacity degree division of eachindex.For aspect of overcapacity evaluation, according to the shipbuilding industryovercapacity recognition research, selected11indicators from five aspects constructed theevaluation index system of overcapacity. Using the entropy value method to measure theweight of each index, based on the measurement calculated the shipbuilding industryovercapacity situation of each year. For aspect of overcapacity early warning, the paper discussed the idea and method ofshipbuilding industry overcapacity with the combination of entropy value method and BPneural network, and proposed EM-BP early-warning model of shipbuilding industryovercapacity according to shipbuilding industrial characteristics. Then using Matlab neuralnetwork toolbox to build a network of overcapacity early-warning model, and conducted anempirical early-warning research by using the model on China’s shipbuilding industryovercapacity situation.For aspects of overcapacity response strategy, the paper proposed two aspects ofcoping strategies mainly from the industry and enterprise levels. Hoping to play animportant practical significance of China’s shipbuilding industry overcapacity.