Research Of Early-warning Of Storm Surge Disaster Economic Losses In China Sea Typical Regions

Contribution from Marine to human will become greater and greater. Accompanied by mankind's continuously exploiting marine. Meanwhile, economic losses caused by Marine disasters will upgrade gradually . China is one of the few countries in the world which suffers many kinds of serious natural disasters with high frequency and intensity. While China is the typically marine great power ,storm surge disaster is the main Marine disaster in China's coastal. In recent years, China's Marine economy is growing rapidly. Marine GDP reached 31964 billion yuan in 2009 with an increase of 8.6% which accounted for 15.5% of GDP in coastal areas and also the 9.53% of GDP. Along with the rapid development of economy, storm surge disaster on the social and economic influence becomes more and more serious. Since the 1990s, annual calamity loss has reached as high as 10 billion yuan with a rapidly growing because of rapid economic development and population increasing dramatically. According to China's Marine disaster communique, storm surge, waves and redtide process accumulatively happened 132 times in China in 2009, in which direct economic loss caused by storm surge disaster was 84.97 billion yuan.The frequent occurrence from storm surge disaster has brought great pressure to social and economic development in coastal areas. Therefore, it has important significance for the sustainable development and the construction of the socialist harmonious society that we should strengthen the storm surge disaster prevention and mitigation in storm surge disaster, especially the disaster monitoring, disaster influences of hazard -formative rules and the state's early warning research.At present because of the limit of some subjective and objective conditions ,researches on storm surge disaster are largely about natural factors, while the economic and social factors of lower.This paper based on the knowledge of storm surge disaster defines the definition of storm surge disaster economic early-warning and establishes the storm surge disaster warning index system through analyze the influential factors of storm surge disaster disasters. It classified the level of the storm surge disaster and establishes the early-warning model of economic loss based on comprehensive evaluation method and the economic theory of storm surge disaster. Meanwhile it makes a empirical analysis on economic loss of storm surge disaster in China sea typical areas. This thesis mainly includes six parts, structure is as follows:The first part is the definition of related concept of storm surge disaster economic early-warning in China sea typical regions.It mainly includes three parts: storm surge disaster related definitions, economic warning related definitions, storm surge disaster economic warning.The second part is the storm surge disaster economic warning theoretical basis, mainly including four theories: disaster management, disaster economics, system theory and economic early-warning model theory.The third part is the storm surge disaster warning index system. We establish a index system contains 48 secondary indexes and 87 3- level indexes through certain principles and methods for selecting. These indexes can more comprehensive, scientific, systematic reflect on the storm surge disaster, establishment of index system lay a solid foundation to the whole study .In the fourth part ,we choose 12 important indexes from storm surge disaster economic early-warning index system.Based on these we classified the storm surge disaster loss level by using method of entropy and principal component analysis.We establish the storm surge disaster economic loss comprehensive early warning model through the gray correlation analysis method, econometric methods, the technique of artificial neural network method.The fifth part is make the early-warning to the dam damaged, roof damage, loss of farmland, the affected population, direct economic losses, breeding damaged six specific disaster losses based on the comprehensive warning model.The sixth part is the summarize and outlook.It makes a summarize to the article and a thinking to the next job.