| Since the industrial revolution, emission of Carbon Dioxide(CO2) originated from human activities in burning fossil fuels was accounted for more than 95% of the total air emission, while nearly 40% of which was caused by industrial activities. In China, CO2 emission caused by industrial production was accounted for more than 80% of the country's total carbon emission, and this emission of exporting took a considerable share in the total industrial carbon emission. With the development of industrial production, the amount of CO2 emission continued to increase. In 1997-2005, carbon emission in exports of Chinese industry was accounted for 21-33% of the total, and from 2002 to 2005, this proportion rose to 50%. On November 25th, 2009, Chinese government announced, by 2020, China's carbon emission of per unit GDP will decrease by 40-45% which is compared to the level in 2005. This is a solemn commitment to the world, and is our government actively responce to global climate change from our own situattion. Therefore scutinizing the carbon emission of exports in industrial products and improving the production method of these exporting manufacturers, based on the current situation and trend of carbon emission in exports of industrial products, would both have positive influence to the realization of China's commitment to reducing the carbon emission intensity.The role of Chinese government is critical to improve industrial production method of exporting manufacturers because these manufacturers are the main part of low-carbon transformation in China. Ignoring their importance will lead the uncertainty and vulnerability of low-carbon economy of our country. Therefore, to analyze the main factors which influence both the willingness and behavior of low-carbon production of those exporting manufacturers will be very valuable. This paper launches a preliminary analysis based on the case of 212 manufacturers exporting industrial pruducts in the South of Jiangsu Province. Results about carbon emission of Jiangsu exports trade in industrial products show that Jiangsu is a net exporter of embodied carbon emission. Main factors influenced the willingness and behavior of low-carbon production of exporting manufacturers are the characteristics of top managers, scale, features of market, energy utilization and the external pressures. The eduction background of top managers is master or above, the registered capital of manufacturer are RMB 1,000 million and above, passing through the ISO14000 certification, energy structure is better and policy of emission reduction is made by government are major factors significantly affecting the low-carbon production willingness of these exporting manufacturers. The proportion of R&D personnel and allocation of R&D institution accredited the ISO14000 certification and other factors all significantly affect the low-carbon production behavior of manufacturers exporting industrial products. Conclusions show that there is a inevitable interaction between the willingness and behavior of low-carbon production. Because there are some differences between them, the transformation of higher willingness of low-carbon production into behavior will encounter much uncertainties. The innovation capability of these manufacturers will play a major role.This paper innovativly use Binary Logistic Regression model with Penalty Function and Interval Censored Regression model to analyze the main factors influencing the willingness and behavior of the low-carbon production of manufacturers exporting the industrial products. The corresponding policy of the findings is that low-carbon production behavior relys on the willing of low-carbon production of these samples. Government directing the transformation of industrial production should well balance the mandatory institutional arrangements and effective policy support system. The core policy is the improvement in capability of technological innovation of those exporting manufacturers. |
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